[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 August 18 issued 2353 UT on 20 Aug 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Tue Aug 21 09:53:27 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 AUGUST 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 21 AUGUST - 23 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Aug:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Aug             22 Aug             23 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 20Aug. Region 2718 (S07W28) 
decayed over the last 24 hours and region 2719 (S09E31) was quiet 
and stable. The analysis of the filament eruption on 19Aug at 
~~0534UT near region 2718 and its associated CME has shown that 
it is not expected to be geoeffective, with the bulk of the solar 
material directed to the south west. The solar wind speed (Vsw) 
remains elevated under the influence of a high speed solar wind 
stream from a recurrent equatorial located positive polarity 
coronal hole. Vsw was approx 510km/s at 00UT and then steadily 
increased from 02UT onwards to be approximately 670km/s at the 
time of this report. Bz ranged between -8nT and +9nT between 
00UT-08UT after which its magnitude decreased and is currently 
fluctuating between +/-3nT. Solar wind speed is expected to remain 
elevated over the next 2 days. Solar activity is expected to 
remain at Very Low levels for the next 3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Aug: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 20 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   33223332
      Darwin              10   33213321
      Townsville          12   33223332
      Learmonth           13   33224332
      Alice Springs       11   33223331
      Culgoora            11   23223332
      Gingin              13   33223342
      Canberra            10   23123332
      Launceston          14   33224333
      Hobart              12   23224332    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Aug :
      Macquarie Island    14   23134432
      Casey               20   34423443
      Mawson              62   56334485
      Davis               39   45333275

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              48   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            13   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9   2222 1333     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Aug    15    Unsettled to Active
22 Aug    12    Unsettled
23 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at Quiet to Active levels 
across the Australian region for the 20Aug. Elevated geomagnetic 
activity due a recurrent coronal hole resulted in Unsettled conditions 
with isolated Active periods for mid latitudes and sustained 
Active periods for high latitude stations. Unsettled to Active 
conditions are expected for 21Aug-22Aug with Quiet to Unsettled 
conditions for 23Aug.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for low to mid 
latitudes and disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes 
due to elevated geomagnetic activity. Possibility of depressed 
MUF's for mid to high latitudes and continued poor ionospheric 
support for high latitudes over the next 2 days with MUFs near 
monthly predicted values.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
20 Aug     2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      6
Aug      -3
Sep      -4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values
22 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values
23 Aug     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values across 
the Aus/NZ regions for 20Aug with notable disturbed ionospheric 
support for Antarctic regions due to elevated geomagnetic activity. 
MUFs are expected to be mostly near monthly predicted levels 
over the next 3 days with chance of minor depressions for Northern 
and Southern AUS/NZ regions. Improving high latitude ionospheric 
conditions form 22Aug onwards.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Aug
Speed: 448 km/sec  Density:    6.7 p/cc  Temp:   195000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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