[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 August 18 issued 2339 UT on 19 Aug 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Mon Aug 20 09:39:56 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 AUGUST 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 20 AUGUST - 22 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Aug:  67/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Aug             21 Aug             22 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 19 Aug. 
For the next three UT days, 20-22 Aug, the solar activity is 
expected to remain at Very Low levels. H-alpha imagery observed 
a filament eruption starting ~0534UT near region 2718(S06W12) 
with an associated narrow CME observed in STEREO imagery around 
0754UT, however significant data gaps make definitive analysis 
difficult. The solar wind speed steadily decreased to 400 Km/s 
and began to increase from 1600UT onwards to be 500 Km/s at the 
time of this report. Bz was mostly neutral until 1600UT after 
which it decreased in magnitude varied between +/-5 nT while 
Bt increased from 5 nT to 12 nT during this period. These enhanced 
solar wind speeds are in response to the arrival of CIR ahead 
of HSS associated with a recurrent coronal hole. The solar wind 
stream is expected to strengthen further over the next 24 hours 
due to coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11121221
      Darwin               4   11111222
      Townsville           5   11121222
      Learmonth            4   11111221
      Alice Springs        3   01111221
      Culgoora             4   11121221
      Gingin               3   11110221
      Canberra             4   11121221
      Launceston           5   11221222
      Hobart               4   11121221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     4   00231211
      Casey               14   33221351
      Mawson              14   33421324
      Davis               13   23432332

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             15   2453 2322     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Aug    20    Quiet to Active
21 Aug    15    Quiet to Active
22 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at Quiet levels across the 
Australian region during the UT day, 19 Aug. The Antarctic region 
experienced Unsettled to Active conditions during the last 24 
hours. Expect magnetic conditions to increase to Active levels, 
during the next few hours in response to CIR and subsequent HSS 
associated with a recurrent coronal hole. A period of significant 
southward Bz component could produce isolated Minor Storm levels 
during the next 24 hours.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
22 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
24 hours.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
19 Aug    -4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      6
Aug      -3
Sep      -4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values
21 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values
22 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across the 
Aus/NZ regions on UT day 19 Aug. The three days outlook, 20-22 
Aug is for MUFs to be mostly near monthly predicted levels. MUFs 
are expected to be strongest today, 20 Aug due the onset of expected 
geomagnetic disturbance.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Aug
Speed: 520 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:   186000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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