[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 August 18 issued 2352 UT on 23 Aug 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 24 09:52:48 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 AUGUST 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 24 AUGUST - 26 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Aug: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Aug 25 Aug 26 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 23Aug. Region 2719 (S08W09)
is the only numbered region on the visible disc remained quiet.
The solar wind speed (Vsw) continued to decline under the waning
influence of a recurrent negative polarity coronal hole. Vsw
was 456km/s at 00UT and is currently ~375km/s at the time of
this report. Bz which is the north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF) ranged between +/-3nT over the UT day. Solar
wind speed is expected fall to ambient levels over the next 24
hours. The CME feature observed in LASCO-C2 imagery from 22UT
20Aug may have a slight impact on the solar wind speed but with
a more notable increase in the density and IMF should it produce
a glancing blow sometime on the 24Aug. Solar activity is expected
to remain at Very Low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 11102000
Darwin 2 11101101
Townsville 4 21212111
Learmonth 3 21212000
Alice Springs 1 11101001
Culgoora 1 11111000
Gingin 2 10102110
Canberra 1 10102000
Launceston 2 10212100
Hobart 1 10102000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Aug :
Macquarie Island 1 10012000
Casey 6 33211111
Mawson 17 53212225
Davis 11 33323222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 6 2310 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Aug 12 Quiet with the chance of Active to Minor Storm
periods
25 Aug 11 Unsettled
26 Aug 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the Australian region
for 23Aug. Quiet conditions are expected initially for 24Aug
with the chance of a slow moving glancing blow CME from a possible
disappearing solar filament (visible in LASCO-C2 imagery 20Aug)
which may result in Active to Minor Storm periods. Quiet to Unsettled
with possible Active periods for 25Aug and mostly Quiet conditions
expected for 26Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Aug Normal Normal Fair-normal
25 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
26 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for low to mid
latitudes with minor MUF depressions and continued disturbed
ionospheric support for high latitude. Similar conditions are
expected for the next 3 days with possible depressed MUF's for
mid latitudes and continued poor ionospheric support for high
latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Aug -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 6
Aug -3
Sep -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
25 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
26 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable HF support observed for some Equatorial regions
over the last 24 hours with MUFs otherwise near predicted monthly
value for the rest of the AUS/NZ region. MUFs expected to be
near predicted monthly values for the next 3 days with chance
of mild to moderate depressions for Southern AUS/NZ regions for
and disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic regions should
CME associated geomagnetic activity eventuate over the next 24
hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Aug
Speed: 492 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 272000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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