[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 August 18 issued 2352 UT on 23 Aug 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 24 09:52:48 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 AUGUST 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 24 AUGUST - 26 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Aug:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Aug             25 Aug             26 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 23Aug. Region 2719 (S08W09) 
is the only numbered region on the visible disc remained quiet. 
The solar wind speed (Vsw) continued to decline under the waning 
influence of a recurrent negative polarity coronal hole. Vsw 
was 456km/s at 00UT and is currently ~375km/s at the time of 
this report. Bz which is the north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field (IMF) ranged between +/-3nT over the UT day. Solar 
wind speed is expected fall to ambient levels over the next 24 
hours. The CME feature observed in LASCO-C2 imagery from 22UT 
20Aug may have a slight impact on the solar wind speed but with 
a more notable increase in the density and IMF should it produce 
a glancing blow sometime on the 24Aug. Solar activity is expected 
to remain at Very Low levels for the next 3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 23 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11102000
      Darwin               2   11101101
      Townsville           4   21212111
      Learmonth            3   21212000
      Alice Springs        1   11101001
      Culgoora             1   11111000
      Gingin               2   10102110
      Canberra             1   10102000
      Launceston           2   10212100
      Hobart               1   10102000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     1   10012000
      Casey                6   33211111
      Mawson              17   53212225
      Davis               11   33323222

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              6   2310 1212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Aug    12    Quiet with the chance of Active to Minor Storm 
                periods
25 Aug    11    Unsettled
26 Aug     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the Australian region 
for 23Aug. Quiet conditions are expected initially for 24Aug 
with the chance of a slow moving glancing blow CME from a possible 
disappearing solar filament (visible in LASCO-C2 imagery 20Aug) 
which may result in Active to Minor Storm periods. Quiet to Unsettled 
with possible Active periods for 25Aug and mostly Quiet conditions 
expected for 26Aug.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Aug      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal
25 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
26 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for low to mid 
latitudes with minor MUF depressions and continued disturbed 
ionospheric support for high latitude. Similar conditions are 
expected for the next 3 days with possible depressed MUF's for 
mid latitudes and continued poor ionospheric support for high 
latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Aug    -2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      6
Aug      -3
Sep      -4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values
25 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values
26 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable HF support observed for some Equatorial regions 
over the last 24 hours with MUFs otherwise near predicted monthly 
value for the rest of the AUS/NZ region. MUFs expected to be 
near predicted monthly values for the next 3 days with chance 
of mild to moderate depressions for Southern AUS/NZ regions for 
and disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic regions should 
CME associated geomagnetic activity eventuate over the next 24 
hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Aug
Speed: 492 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:   272000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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