[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 August 18 issued 2330 UT on 16 Aug 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 17 09:30:26 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 AUGUST 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 17 AUGUST - 19 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Aug: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 16 Aug.
There is currently one small sunspot magnetically simple on the
visible solar disk. For the next 3 UT days, 17-19 Aug, solar
activity is expected to remain at Very Low levels. Solar wind
speed is ~460km/s at the time of this report and is expected
to gradually decline over the next 24 hours due to the waning
influence a positive polarity recurrent coronal hole. The IMF
Bt during the last 24 hours was mostly near 5 nT and the Bz component
of IMF fluctuated between +/-4nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Aug : A K
Australian Region 9 23232222
Darwin 7 22232212
Townsville 9 23232222
Learmonth 10 23233222
Alice Springs 9 23232222
Culgoora 6 22222122
Gingin 9 33222222
Canberra 6 22222122
Launceston 9 23232222
Hobart 6 22222212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Aug :
Macquarie Island 11 22244211
Casey 11 33332132
Mawson 39 66533353
Davis 25 54433253
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14 2124 4333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Aug 12 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Aug 5 Quiet
19 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at Quiet to Unsettled levels
across the Australian region during the UT day, 16 Aug. The Antarctic
region experienced some Active to Minor Storm conditions during
the last 24 hours. Expect magnetic conditions to remain at Quiet
to Unsettled levels, today 17 Aug then mostly Quiet on UT days,
18-19 Aug, as the influence of the coronal hole declines.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal
19 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
24 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Aug 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 6
Aug -3
Sep -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
18 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
19 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across the
Aus/NZ regions on UT day 16 Aug, with Minor MUF depressions in
the Niue Island Region. Mostly near predicted monthly MUF values
are expected in the Aus/NZ regions for the next three UT days
(17-19 Aug).
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Aug
Speed: 445 km/sec Density: 11.3 p/cc Temp: 155000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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