[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 August 18 issued 2330 UT on 16 Aug 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 17 09:30:26 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 AUGUST 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 17 AUGUST - 19 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Aug:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Aug             18 Aug             19 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 16 Aug. 
There is currently one small sunspot magnetically simple on the 
visible solar disk. For the next 3 UT days, 17-19 Aug, solar 
activity is expected to remain at Very Low levels. Solar wind 
speed is ~460km/s at the time of this report and is expected 
to gradually decline over the next 24 hours due to the waning 
influence a positive polarity recurrent coronal hole. The IMF 
Bt during the last 24 hours was mostly near 5 nT and the Bz component 
of IMF fluctuated between +/-4nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 16 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   23232222
      Darwin               7   22232212
      Townsville           9   23232222
      Learmonth           10   23233222
      Alice Springs        9   23232222
      Culgoora             6   22222122
      Gingin               9   33222222
      Canberra             6   22222122
      Launceston           9   23232222
      Hobart               6   22222212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Aug :
      Macquarie Island    11   22244211
      Casey               11   33332132
      Mawson              39   66533353
      Davis               25   54433253

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             14   2124 4333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Aug    12    Quiet to Unsettled
18 Aug     5    Quiet
19 Aug     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at Quiet to Unsettled levels 
across the Australian region during the UT day, 16 Aug. The Antarctic 
region experienced some Active to Minor Storm conditions during 
the last 24 hours. Expect magnetic conditions to remain at Quiet 
to Unsettled levels, today 17 Aug then mostly Quiet on UT days, 
18-19 Aug, as the influence of the coronal hole declines.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Aug     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      6
Aug      -3
Sep      -4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values
18 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values
19 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across the 
Aus/NZ regions on UT day 16 Aug, with Minor MUF depressions in 
the Niue Island Region. Mostly near predicted monthly MUF values 
are expected in the Aus/NZ regions for the next three UT days 
(17-19 Aug).

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Aug
Speed: 445 km/sec  Density:   11.3 p/cc  Temp:   155000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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