[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 August 18 issued 2334 UT on 17 Aug 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 18 09:34:23 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 AUGUST 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 18 AUGUST - 20 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Aug:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Aug             19 Aug             20 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 17 Aug. 
There is currently one small sunspot region magnetically simple 
on the visible solar disk. For the next three UT days, 18-20 
Aug, the solar activity is expected to remain at Very Low levels. 
During the UT day, 17 Aug the solar wind speed remained slightly 
enhanced under the continued influence of a positive polarity 
recurrent coronal hole, currently near 550km/s. The total IMF 
Bt varied mostly between 4 nT and 6 nT during the past 24 hours. 
The Bz component of IMF varied between +/-6 nT. The outlook for 
the next two days, 18-19 Aug is for the solar wind speed to decrease 
to its nominal levels. From UT day 20 Aug, the solar wind is 
expected to increase again in response to an approaching negative 
polarity coronal hole. The STEREO A satellite experienced solar 
winds of near 600 km/s associated with this coronal hole, similar 
solar wind strengths are expected at Earth.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 17 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   23221023
      Darwin               6   23221022
      Townsville           8   33221023
      Learmonth            7   23221023
      Alice Springs        6   23221022
      Culgoora             6   23221022
      Gingin               8   23211033
      Canberra             7   23221023
      Launceston           8   23321023
      Hobart               6   23211022    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     6   13320022
      Casey               12   33332033
      Mawson              48   47442166
      Davis               55   35442086

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             10   4322 2213     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Aug     7    Quiet
19 Aug     5    Quiet
20 Aug    20    Quiet to Active.

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at Quiet to Unsettled levels 
across the Australian region during the UT day, 17 Aug. The Antarctic 
region experienced some Active to Minor Storm conditions during 
the last 24 hours. Expect magnetic conditions to be mostly Quiet 
on UT days, 18-19 Aug, as the influence of the coronal hole declines. 
Quiet to Active conditions are expected for 20 Aug in response 
to CIR and subsequent HSS associated with a recurrent coronal 
hole. A period of significant southward Bz component could produce 
isolated Minor Storm levels on 20 Aug.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Aug    10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      6
Aug      -3
Sep      -4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values
19 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values
20 Aug    10    20 to 30% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across the 
Aus/NZ regions on UT day 17 Aug. Moderately enhanced MUFs were 
observed over Australasia during local night. Incidents of Spread 
F and Sporadic E were observed at some Australian sites. The 
two days outlook, 18-19 Aug is for MUFs to be mostly near monthly 
predicted levels. MUFs are expected to be strongest on UT day 
20 Aug at the onset of expected geomagnetic disturbance.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Aug
Speed: 474 km/sec  Density:    8.7 p/cc  Temp:   240000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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