[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 August 18 issued 2334 UT on 17 Aug 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 18 09:34:23 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 AUGUST 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 18 AUGUST - 20 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Aug: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Aug 19 Aug 20 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 17 Aug.
There is currently one small sunspot region magnetically simple
on the visible solar disk. For the next three UT days, 18-20
Aug, the solar activity is expected to remain at Very Low levels.
During the UT day, 17 Aug the solar wind speed remained slightly
enhanced under the continued influence of a positive polarity
recurrent coronal hole, currently near 550km/s. The total IMF
Bt varied mostly between 4 nT and 6 nT during the past 24 hours.
The Bz component of IMF varied between +/-6 nT. The outlook for
the next two days, 18-19 Aug is for the solar wind speed to decrease
to its nominal levels. From UT day 20 Aug, the solar wind is
expected to increase again in response to an approaching negative
polarity coronal hole. The STEREO A satellite experienced solar
winds of near 600 km/s associated with this coronal hole, similar
solar wind strengths are expected at Earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Aug : A K
Australian Region 7 23221023
Darwin 6 23221022
Townsville 8 33221023
Learmonth 7 23221023
Alice Springs 6 23221022
Culgoora 6 23221022
Gingin 8 23211033
Canberra 7 23221023
Launceston 8 23321023
Hobart 6 23211022
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Aug :
Macquarie Island 6 13320022
Casey 12 33332033
Mawson 48 47442166
Davis 55 35442086
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 10 4322 2213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Aug 7 Quiet
19 Aug 5 Quiet
20 Aug 20 Quiet to Active.
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at Quiet to Unsettled levels
across the Australian region during the UT day, 17 Aug. The Antarctic
region experienced some Active to Minor Storm conditions during
the last 24 hours. Expect magnetic conditions to be mostly Quiet
on UT days, 18-19 Aug, as the influence of the coronal hole declines.
Quiet to Active conditions are expected for 20 Aug in response
to CIR and subsequent HSS associated with a recurrent coronal
hole. A period of significant southward Bz component could produce
isolated Minor Storm levels on 20 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal
19 Aug Normal Normal Normal
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Aug 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 6
Aug -3
Sep -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
19 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
20 Aug 10 20 to 30% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across the
Aus/NZ regions on UT day 17 Aug. Moderately enhanced MUFs were
observed over Australasia during local night. Incidents of Spread
F and Sporadic E were observed at some Australian sites. The
two days outlook, 18-19 Aug is for MUFs to be mostly near monthly
predicted levels. MUFs are expected to be strongest on UT day
20 Aug at the onset of expected geomagnetic disturbance.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Aug
Speed: 474 km/sec Density: 8.7 p/cc Temp: 240000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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