[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 August 18 issued 2335 UT on 15 Aug 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 16 09:35:45 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 AUGUST 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 16 AUGUST - 18 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Aug:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Aug             17 Aug             18 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 15 Aug. 
There is currently one small sunspot magnetically simple on the 
visible solar disk, region 2718 (S07E42). No Earth-directed CMEs 
were observed today, 15 Aug in available LASCO C2 and C3 imagery. 
For the next 3 UT days, 16-18 Aug, solar activity is expected 
to remain at Very Low levels with a slight chance of an isolated 
C-class flare. The solar wind speed was ~340m/s and began to 
increase from 0400UT onwards to be 500 Km/s at the time of this 
report. Bz was mostly neutral until 0400UT after which it decreased 
in magnitude varied between +/- 9 nT with extended southward 
periods while Bt increased from 4 nT to 10 nT during this period. 
These enhanced solar wind speeds are in response to the arrival 
of CIR ahead of HSS associated with a recurrent coronal hole. 
The solar wind stream is expected to strengthen further over 
the next 24 hours due to coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Aug: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 15 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   11134223
      Darwin              10   22234212
      Townsville          12   21244223
      Learmonth           16   12245323
      Alice Springs       10   11234213
      Culgoora             9   21134222
      Gingin              14   11135333
      Canberra             9   11134222
      Launceston          14   11145223
      Hobart              11   11144223    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Aug :
      Macquarie Island    21   00355442
      Casey               12   23233233
      Mawson              48   32344667
      Davis               49   22433775

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              4   1000 1113     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Aug    20    Quiet to Active
17 Aug    12    Quiet to Unsettled
18 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at Quiet to Active levels across 
the Australian region during the UT day, 15 Aug. This was caused 
by the arrival of CIR ahead of HSS associated with a recurrent 
coronal hole and a long period of southward Bz component. Expect 
magnetic conditions to remain at Quiet to Active levels, today 
16 Aug then Quiet to Unsettled conditions on UT days, 17-18 Aug, 
as the influence of the coronal hole declines. A period of significant 
southward Bz component could produce isolated Minor Storm levels 
over the next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
17 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
18 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Periods of moderately degraded HF propagation conditions 
are possible over 24-48 hours due to current geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Aug     0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      6
Aug      -3
Sep      -4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
17 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
18 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mildly depressed MUFs were observed over the Northern 
Australian between 03-07 UT. At other times, MUFs over Australasia 
were mostly near the monthly predicted values. Incidents of Spread 
F and Sporadic E were observed at some Australian sites. Periods 
of Minor to Moderate MUF depressions are possible on 16-17 Aug 
due to recent increase of geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Aug
Speed: 329 km/sec  Density:    7.0 p/cc  Temp:    10600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.




More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list