[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 August 18 issued 2330 UT on 14 Aug 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 15 09:30:25 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 AUGUST 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 15 AUGUST - 17 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Aug: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 14 Aug,
with no solar flares. There is one numbered sunspot regions on
the visible solar disk, Region 2718, currently located at (S08E55).
For the next 3 UT days, 15-17 Aug, solar activity is expected
to remain at Very Low levels. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in LASCO C2 imagery up to 14/0136UT. The solar wind speed during
the last 24 hours was mostly near the nominal level of 340 Km/s.
The IMF Bt during the last 24 hours was mostly near 3 nT while
the Bz component was mostly positive. The solar wind stream is
expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours due to coronal
hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11111000
Darwin 1 11010001
Townsville 2 11111001
Learmonth 1 11110000
Alice Springs 1 01110001
Culgoora 1 01111001
Gingin 1 10111000
Canberra 1 01101000
Launceston 1 11111000
Hobart 1 11001000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 3 22211000
Mawson 5 31121202
Davis 6 12241100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1212 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Aug 15 Quiet to Active
16 Aug 20 Quiet to Active
17 Aug 12 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the
Australian region on UT day 14 Aug. Quiet to Active with a chance
of occasional Minor Storm conditions are expected for the next
two days, 15-16 Aug in response to CIR and subsequent HSS associated
with a recurrent coronal hole, then Quiet to Unsettled conditions
on UT day, 17 Aug, as the influence of the coronal hole declines.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal
16 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
17 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
24 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Aug -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 6
Aug -3
Sep -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
16 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
17 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across the
Aus/NZ regions on UT day 14 Aug. Incidents of Spread F and Sporadic
E were observed at some Australian sites. Similar HF conditions
are expected today, 15 Aug. Periods of moderately degraded conditions
are possible on 16-17 Aug due to expected increase of geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Aug
Speed: 408 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 162000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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