[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 August 18 issued 2330 UT on 14 Aug 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 15 09:30:25 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 AUGUST 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 15 AUGUST - 17 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Aug:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Aug             16 Aug             17 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 14 Aug, 
with no solar flares. There is one numbered sunspot regions on 
the visible solar disk, Region 2718, currently located at (S08E55). 
For the next 3 UT days, 15-17 Aug, solar activity is expected 
to remain at Very Low levels. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed 
in LASCO C2 imagery up to 14/0136UT. The solar wind speed during 
the last 24 hours was mostly near the nominal level of 340 Km/s. 
The IMF Bt during the last 24 hours was mostly near 3 nT while 
the Bz component was mostly positive. The solar wind stream is 
expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours due to coronal 
hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 14 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11111000
      Darwin               1   11010001
      Townsville           2   11111001
      Learmonth            1   11110000
      Alice Springs        1   01110001
      Culgoora             1   01111001
      Gingin               1   10111000
      Canberra             1   01101000
      Launceston           1   11111000
      Hobart               1   11001000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     0   00001000
      Casey                3   22211000
      Mawson               5   31121202
      Davis                6   12241100

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   1212 2211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Aug    15    Quiet to Active
16 Aug    20    Quiet to Active
17 Aug    12    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the 
Australian region on UT day 14 Aug. Quiet to Active with a chance 
of occasional Minor Storm conditions are expected for the next 
two days, 15-16 Aug in response to CIR and subsequent HSS associated 
with a recurrent coronal hole, then Quiet to Unsettled conditions 
on UT day, 17 Aug, as the influence of the coronal hole declines.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
17 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Aug    -2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      6
Aug      -3
Sep      -4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values
16 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
17 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across the 
Aus/NZ regions on UT day 14 Aug. Incidents of Spread F and Sporadic 
E were observed at some Australian sites. Similar HF conditions 
are expected today, 15 Aug. Periods of moderately degraded conditions 
are possible on 16-17 Aug due to expected increase of geomagnetic 
activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Aug
Speed: 408 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:   162000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.




More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list