[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 August 18 issued 2331 UT on 13 Aug 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Tue Aug 14 09:31:54 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 AUGUST 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 14 AUGUST - 16 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Aug:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Aug             15 Aug             16 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 13 Aug, 
with no solar flares. There are currently no numbered sunspot 
region on the visible solar disk. For the next 3 UT days, 14-16 
Aug, solar activity is expected to remain at Very Low levels. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in LASCO C2 imagery up to 
13/0724 UT. The solar wind speed during the last 24 hours varied 
mostly between 430-360 km/s. The IMF Bt during the last 24 hours 
was mostly steady near 3 nT while the Bz component fluctuated 
between +/-3 nT with a prolonged southward Bz period (up to -3 
nT) between 02-09 UT. The outlook for today, 14 Aug is for the 
solar wind speed to remain near the same level. From UT 15 Aug, 
the solar wind is expected to start to increase in response to 
an approaching positive polarity coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 13 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11111000
      Darwin               2   11111001
      Townsville           2   11121000
      Learmonth            1   10111000
      Alice Springs        1   11011000
      Culgoora             1   11111000
      Gingin               1   01111000
      Canberra             1   01012000
      Launceston           3   01123000
      Hobart               1   00022000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     1   00022000
      Casey                3   12221001
      Mawson              12   23222205
      Davis               55   12393101

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   1102 2222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Aug     7    Quiet
15 Aug    15    Quiet to Active
16 Aug    20    Quiet to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mainly at Quiet levels across 
the Australian region on UT day 13 Aug. Mainly Quiet levels of 
magnetic activity today, 14 Aug as the solar wind is expected 
to be at nominal values. Quiet to Active with a chance of occasional 
Minor Storm conditions are expected from 15 Aug in response to 
CIR and subsequent HSS associated with a recurrent coronal hole.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
24 hours.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
13 Aug    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      6
Aug      -3
Sep      -4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values
15 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values
16 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across the 
Aus/NZ regions on UT day 13 Aug, with periods of mild MUF depressions 
in the Northern Australian Region during local day. Incidents 
of spread F were observed at some Australian sites. Mostly normal 
to moderately enhanced MUFs are expected in the Aus/NZ regions 
for the next two UT days (14-15 Aug). Periods of moderately degraded 
conditions are possible on 16 Aug due to expected increase of 
geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Aug
Speed: 392 km/sec  Density:    8.7 p/cc  Temp:    31600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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