[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 August 18 issued 2330 UT on 12 Aug 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 13 09:30:26 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 AUGUST 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 13 AUGUST - 15 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Aug: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 12 August,
with no solar flares. There are currently no numbered sunspot
region on the visible solar disk. For the next 3 UT days, 13-15
August, solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the UT day, 12 August,
via LASCO C2 imagery up to 12/1724 UT. The solar wind speed during
the last 24 hours was mostly steady near 400 km/s. The IMF Bt
during the last 24 hours varied between 2 nT and 6 nT; the Bz
component of IMF fluctuated between -4 nT and 4 nT, with no significant
period of southward Bz. The outlook for UT day today (13 August)
is for the solar wind speed to remain near the same level. This
weakly enhanced solar wind speed is in response to a recurrent
equatorial coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 11122001
Darwin 3 11112101
Townsville 6 12123112
Learmonth 3 11122001
Alice Springs 3 12122001
Culgoora 3 11122001
Gingin 4 11123001
Canberra 2 01022000
Launceston 6 22133101
Hobart 4 11033000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Aug :
Casey 6 23222111
Mawson 18 33332145
Davis 10 23342112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 10 2222 3234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Aug 7 Quiet
14 Aug 7 Quiet
15 Aug 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels across the
Australian region during the UT day 12 August. The Antarctic
region experienced some unsettled to active conditions during
the last 24 hours. The outlook for today (UT day 13 August) is
for the global magnetic activity to be mostly quiet and occasionally
may reach unsettled levels. The anticipated sporadic disturbed
conditions are because the earth is under the influence of slightly
enhanced solar wind speed associated with a recurrent equatorial
coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day
12 August, with periods of minor MUF depression over the dayside
equatorial regions and over the high latitude region. Similar
HF conditions are expected for today, UT day 13 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Aug 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 6
Aug -3
Sep -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Aug 4 Near predicted monthly values
14 Aug 4 Near predicted monthly values
15 Aug 4 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 12 Aug, depressed MUFs were observed over
the Northern Australian region during local day. Moderately enhanced
MUFs were observed over Australasia during local night. The three
day outlook (UT days 13-15 Aug) is for MUFs to trend mostly near
monthly predicted levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Aug
Speed: 388 km/sec Density: 11.5 p/cc Temp: 89800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list