[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 August 18 issued 2330 UT on 12 Aug 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 13 09:30:26 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 AUGUST 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 13 AUGUST - 15 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Aug:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Aug             14 Aug             15 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 12 August, 
with no solar flares. There are currently no numbered sunspot 
region on the visible solar disk. For the next 3 UT days, 13-15 
August, solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the UT day, 12 August, 
via LASCO C2 imagery up to 12/1724 UT. The solar wind speed during 
the last 24 hours was mostly steady near 400 km/s. The IMF Bt 
during the last 24 hours varied between 2 nT and 6 nT; the Bz 
component of IMF fluctuated between -4 nT and 4 nT, with no significant 
period of southward Bz. The outlook for UT day today (13 August) 
is for the solar wind speed to remain near the same level. This 
weakly enhanced solar wind speed is in response to a recurrent 
equatorial coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 12 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11122001
      Darwin               3   11112101
      Townsville           6   12123112
      Learmonth            3   11122001
      Alice Springs        3   12122001
      Culgoora             3   11122001
      Gingin               4   11123001
      Canberra             2   01022000
      Launceston           6   22133101
      Hobart               4   11033000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Aug :
      Casey                6   23222111
      Mawson              18   33332145
      Davis               10   23342112

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
    

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             10   2222 3234     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Aug     7    Quiet
14 Aug     7    Quiet
15 Aug     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels across the 
Australian region during the UT day 12 August. The Antarctic 
region experienced some unsettled to active conditions during 
the last 24 hours. The outlook for today (UT day 13 August) is 
for the global magnetic activity to be mostly quiet and occasionally 
may reach unsettled levels. The anticipated sporadic disturbed 
conditions are because the earth is under the influence of slightly 
enhanced solar wind speed associated with a recurrent equatorial 
coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day 
12 August, with periods of minor MUF depression over the dayside 
equatorial regions and over the high latitude region. Similar 
HF conditions are expected for today, UT day 13 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Aug     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      6
Aug      -3
Sep      -4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Aug     4    Near predicted monthly values
14 Aug     4    Near predicted monthly values
15 Aug     4    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 12 Aug, depressed MUFs were observed over 
the Northern Australian region during local day. Moderately enhanced 
MUFs were observed over Australasia during local night. The three 
day outlook (UT days 13-15 Aug) is for MUFs to trend mostly near 
monthly predicted levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Aug
Speed: 388 km/sec  Density:   11.5 p/cc  Temp:    89800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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