[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 August 18 issued 2330 UT on 11 Aug 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 12 09:30:24 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 AUGUST 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 12 AUGUST - 14 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Aug:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Aug             13 Aug             14 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 11 August, 
with no solar flares. For the next 3 UT days, 12-14 August, solar 
activity is expected to remain at very low levels. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed during the UT day, 11 August, via LASCO C2 
imagery up to 11/1548 UT. The solar wind speed during the last 
24 hours increased from 375 km/s to 425 km/s. The IMF Bt during 
the last 24 hours varied between 5 nT and 10 nT; the Bz component 
of IMF fluctuated between -6 nT and 7 nT, with no prolonged period 
of southward Bz. The outlook for UT day today (12 August) is 
for the solar wind speed to continue to increase and may reach 
to moderate levels. This is in response to a recurrent equatorial 
coronal hole, which now appears to be at a geoeffective location.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 11 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   12322323
      Darwin               9   11411124
      Townsville           9   12322323
      Learmonth           11   22223324
      Alice Springs        9   123223--
      Culgoora             8   12222323
      Gingin              10   123233--
      Canberra             3   01211112
      Launceston           9   12223323
      Hobart               7   11213322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Aug :
      Casey                9   232223--
      Mawson              11   332133--
      Davis               18   23323216

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             3   (Quiet)
      

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   2100 1212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled
13 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled
14 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels 
across the Australian region during the UT day 11 August. The 
Antarctic region experienced a short-lived active geomagnetic 
period during the last 24 hours. The outlook for today (UT day 
12 August) is for the global magnetic activity to be mostly at 
quiet to unsettled levels. The observed and anticipated disturbed 
conditions are due to a recurrent equatorial coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day 
11 August, with periods of minor MUF depression over the dayside 
equatorial regions. Similar HF conditions are expected for UT 
day 12 August, with some periods of moderate MUF depression in 
the high latitude regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Aug     7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available .
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      6
Aug      -3
Sep      -4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values
13 Aug    -3    Near predicted monthly values
14 Aug    -3    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 11 Aug, depressed MUFs were observed over 
the Northern Australian region during local day. Moderately enhanced 
MUFs were observed over Australasia during local night. The three 
day outlook (UT days 12-14 Aug) is for MUFs to trend mostly near 
monthly predicted levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Aug
Speed: 376 km/sec  Density:    6.9 p/cc  Temp:   135000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.




More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list