[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 August 18 issued 2330 UT on 08 Aug 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 9 09:30:25 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 AUGUST 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 09 AUGUST - 11 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Aug: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 69/3 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 08 August,
with no solar flares. There is one numbered sunspot regions on
the visible solar disk, Region 2717, currently located at S09W66.
For the next 3 UT days, 09-11 August, solar activity is expected
to remain at very low levels. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
during the UT day, 08 August, via LASCO C2 imagery up to 08/1624
UT. The solar wind speed during the last 24 hours were at moderate
levels, near 450 km/s. These weakly enhanced solar wind are caused
by a small positive polarity equatorial coronal hole. The IMF
Bt during the last 24 hours were mostly steady near 4 nT; the
Bz component of IMF fluctuated between -2 nT and 2 nT. The outlook
for today (9 August) is for the solar wind speed to remain mostly
at moderately enhanced levels as the coronal hole effects persist.
Expect solar wind to return to its nominal level on Day 2 (UT
day 10 August).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 12121101
Cocos Island 1 1111000-
Darwin 3 2211110-
Townsville 4 12121112
Learmonth 5 21221211
Alice Springs 3 12121101
Culgoora 3 11121101
Gingin 4 1222110-
Canberra 3 1112110-
Launceston 4 12121202
Hobart 3 02121101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Aug :
Macquarie Island 2 001211--
Casey 7 2322220-
Mawson 11 22222144
Davis 15 13322145
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 10 2222 3233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Aug 7 Quiet
10 Aug 7 Quiet
11 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet levels across the
Australian region during the UT day 08 August. The Antarctic
region experienced some unsettled conditions during the last
24 hours. The unsettled conditions are because the earth is still
under the influence of moderately elevated solar winds. The outlook
for the next two days (UT day 09-10 August) is for the magnetic
activity to be mostly at quiet levels and occasionally may reach
unsettled levels. Expect some unsettled conditions on UT day
11 August associated with a possible CIR from an approaching
negative polarity equatorial coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day
08 August, with periods of minor MUF depression over the southern
high latitude and dayside equatorial regions. Similar HF conditions
are expected for the next three UT days (09 - 11 August)
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Aug 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 6
Aug -3
Sep -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Aug 4 Near predicted monthly values
10 Aug 4 Near predicted monthly values
11 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 08 Aug, depressed MUFs were observed over
the Northern Australian around midday. At other times, MUFs over
Australasia were mostly near the monthly predicted values. The
two day outlook (UT day 09-10 Aug) is for similar MUF conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Aug
Speed: 354 km/sec Density: 12.1 p/cc Temp: 31800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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