[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 August 18 issued 2330 UT on 07 Aug 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 8 09:30:24 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 AUGUST 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 08 AUGUST - 10 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Aug: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 07 August,
with no solar flares. There is one numbered sunspot regions on
the visible solar disk, Region 2717, currently located at S09W52.
For the next 3 UT days, 08-10 August, solar activity is expected
to remain at very low levels. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
during the UT day, 07 August, via LASCO C2 imagery up to 07/1624
UT. The solar wind speed during the last 24 hours increased gradually
from 325 km/s to 400 km/s. This weak enhancement in solar wind
is possibly caused by a small positive polarity equatorial coronal
hole. The IMF Bt during the last 24 hours were mostly steady
near 5 nT, except around 12 UT when it briefly increased to 10
nT; the Bz component of IMF fluctuated between -5 nT and 5 nT.
The outlook for today (8 August) is for the solar wind speed
to remain moderately enhanced as the coronal hole effects persist.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Aug : A K
Australian Region 8 23223221
Cocos Island 6 23222120
Darwin 8 23223221
Townsville 8 23223221
Learmonth 8 23223221
Alice Springs 8 23223221
Culgoora 7 22123221
Gingin 8 12223231
Canberra 6 22123220
Launceston 9 23223321
Hobart 6 12213220
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Aug :
Macquarie Island 6 11014310
Casey 8 23213221
Mawson 18 44213325
Davis 11 23323322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1110 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Aug 7 Quiet
10 Aug 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels
across the Australian region during the UT day 07 August. The
unsettled conditions are thought to be associated with the passage
of the small positive polarity equatorial coronal hole. The outlook
for the next two days (UT day 08-09 August) is for the magnetic
activity to be mostly at quiet levels and at times may reach
unsettled levels as the effects of the coronal hole gradually
diminishes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day
07 August, with periods of minor MUF depression over the southern
high latitude and dayside equatorial regions. Similar HF conditions
are expected for the next three UT days (8 - 10 August)
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Aug 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 6
Aug -3
Sep -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
09 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
10 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 07 Aug, moderate to severely depressed MUFs
were observed over the Northern Australian and Antarctic regions
around midday. At other times, MUFs over Australasia were mostly
near the monthly predicted values. The two day outlook (UT day
08-09 Aug) is for similar MUF conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Aug
Speed: 322 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 37600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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