[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 August 18 issued 2330 UT on 06 Aug 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 7 09:30:25 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 AUGUST 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 07 AUGUST - 09 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Aug: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was low for the UT day, 06 August, with
no solar flares. There is one numbered sunspot regions on the
visible solar disk, Region 2717, currently located at S09W38.
For the next 3 UT days, 07-09 August, solar activity is expected
to remain at very low levels. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
during the UT day, 06 August, via LASCO C2 imagery up to 06/1436
UT. The solar wind speed during the last 24 hours were mostly
near the nominal level of 325 km/s. The solar wind speed at the
time of writing this report (06/2300 UT) was 300 km/s. The IMF
Bt during the last 24 hours varied between 2 nT and 6 nT; the
Bz component of IMF were small and mostly positive (northward).
The outlook for today (7 August) is for the solar wind speed
to remain mostly near nominal levels with a possibility of mild
enhancement due to the possible influence from a small positive
polarity equatorial coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Aug : A K
Australian Region 0 01100000
Cocos Island 0 01100000
Darwin 2 11101011
Townsville 3 12111011
Learmonth 1 02100000
Alice Springs 0 01100000
Culgoora 0 01000000
Gingin 1 01100010
Canberra 0 01000000
Launceston 0 01000000
Hobart 0 00000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 2 12200010
Mawson 3 02111021
Davis 7 02221042
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 1102 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Aug 7 Quiet
08 Aug 7 Quiet
09 Aug 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet levels across the
Australian region during the UT day 06 August. The outlook for
the next two days (UT day 07-08 August) is for the magnetic activity
to be mostly at quiet levels and occasionally it may reach unsettled
levels because of the possible influence from a small positive
polarity equatorial coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Aug Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day
06 August, with periods of minor MUF depression over the high
latitude and equatorial regions. Similar HF conditions are expected
for the next three UT days (7 - 9 August)
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Aug 0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 6
Aug -3
Sep -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
08 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
09 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 06 Aug, moderate to severely depressed MUFs
were observed over the Northern Australian and Antarctic regions
around midday. At other times, MUFs over Australasia were mostly
near the monthly predicted values. The depressed conditions are
due to very low solar ionizing flux. The two day outlook (UT
day 07-08 Aug) is for the MUFs to generally trend at near monthly
predicted values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Aug
Speed: 345 km/sec Density: 7.9 p/cc Temp: 73400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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