[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 April 18 issued 2330 UT on 25 Apr 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 26 09:30:27 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 APRIL 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 26 APRIL - 28 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Apr: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Apr 27 Apr 28 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 25 April.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available imagery
during the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed varied between
310 km/s and 360 km/s through the UT day 25 April. The IMF Bt
varied mostly between 2 and 4 nT and the Bz component of IMF
fluctuated between +2.5/-3 nT. Solar winds are expected to show
some rise on 26 and 27 April due to a weak effect of a positive
polarity north polar coronal hole (CH91+). Very Low levels of
solar flare activity are expected for the next three UT days,
26-28 April.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Apr : A K
Australian Region 1 11100000
Cocos Island 0 0100000-
Darwin 1 1110000-
Townsville 2 11201001
Learmonth 1 1110100-
Alice Springs 1 11100000
Culgoora 1 11100001
Gingin 1 1110000-
Canberra 0 0110000-
Launceston 2 12211000
Hobart 1 11110000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Apr :
Macquarie Island 1 011100--
Casey 5 2321110-
Mawson 13 43310105
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1010 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Apr 8 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible
27 Apr 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible
28 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian
region during the UT day 25 April. Geomagnetic conditions are
expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled on 26 and 27 April with
the possibility of isolated active periods on both these days
due to the effect of a positive polarity coronal hole (CH91+).
Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions may be expected on 28 April.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
27 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
28 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values with
periods of minor depressions in some low-latitude areas on UT
day 25 April. Periods of minor MUF enhancements were recorded
in some mid- and high-latitude areas on this day. Minor to moderate
MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions may be expected
on 26 and 27 April. HF conditions may be expected to return to
normal levels on 28 April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Apr 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 2
Apr 2
May 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Apr 4 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
27 Apr 4 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
28 Apr 6 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values over
most of the Aus/NZ region with periods of minor depressions in
the northern areas on UT day 25 April. Periods of minor MUF enhancements
were recorded in some southern areas on this day. Minor to moderate
MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions in the Aus/NZ
region may be expected on 26 and 27 April. HF conditions may
be expected to return to normal levels in the region on 28 April.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Apr
Speed: 374 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 150000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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