[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 April 18 issued 2330 UT on 26 Apr 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 27 09:30:26 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 APRIL 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 27 APRIL - 29 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Apr: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Apr 28 Apr 29 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels today (UT day
26 April). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
imagery during the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed gradually
increased from 340 km/s to 390 km/s through the UT day today.
This increase in solar wind speed may be attributed to the expected
weak effect of a positive polarity polar coronal hole (CH91+).
The IMF Bt varied mostly between 1 and 6 nT and the Bz component
of IMF fluctuated between +4/-3 nT today. Solar winds may show
slight further rise or stay at the current levels on 27 April
due to the expected continued weak effect of the coronal hole
(CH91+). Very Low levels of solar flare activity are expected
for the next three UT days, 27-29 April.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Apr : A K
Australian Region 1 11110001
Cocos Island 4 3-110200
Darwin 2 11110101
Townsville 3 11121011
Learmonth 1 11110000
Alice Springs 1 11110000
Culgoora 2 11111001
Gingin 1 10110000
Canberra 1 01010001
Launceston 2 11121001
Hobart 2 11021000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Apr :
Macquarie Island 2 10020200
Casey 3 22210100
Mawson 4 32210011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 2221 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Apr 10 Mainly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible
28 Apr 5 Quiet
29 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian
region during the UT day 26 April. Geomagnetic conditions are
expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled on 27 April with the
possibility of isolated active periods on this day due to the
effect of a positive polarity coronal hole (CH91+). Mostly quiet
geomagnetic conditions may be expected on 28 and 29 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Apr Normal Normal Fair
28 Apr Normal Normal Normal
29 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values with
periods of minor to moderate depressions in some low latitude
areas on UT day 26 April. Periods of minor to moderate MUF enhancements
were recorded in some mid- and high-latitude areas on this day.
Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions
may be expected on 27 April. HF conditions may be expected to
be mostly at normal levels on 28 and 29 April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Apr 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 2
Apr 2
May 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Apr 4 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
28 Apr 6 Near predicted monthly values
29 Apr 6 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values over
most of the Aus/NZ region with periods of minor to moderate depressions
in the northern areas on UT day 26 April. Periods of minor to
moderate MUF enhancements were recorded in some southern areas
on this day. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions in the Aus/NZ region may be expected on 27 April.
HF conditions may be expected to be mostly at normal levels in
the region on 28 and 29 April.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Apr
Speed: 339 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 50100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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