[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 April 18 issued 2330 UT on 24 Apr 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 25 09:30:25 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 APRIL 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 25 APRIL - 27 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Apr: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Apr 26 Apr 27 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 24 April.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available imagery
during the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed varied between
370 km/s and 430 km/s through the UT day 24 April. The IMF Bt
varied mostly between 3 and 5 nT and the Bz component of IMF
fluctuated between +4/-5 nT. Solar winds are expected to continue
to further decline until late on 25 April or probably until early
on 26 April and then start rising due to the effect of a positive
polarity north polar coronal hole (CH91+). Very Low levels of
solar flare activity are expected for the next three UT days,
25-27 April, with a slight chance of C-class activity, more likely
from region 2706.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Apr : A K
Australian Region 1 00101111
Cocos Island 1 10101110
Darwin 2 01111101
Townsville 3 01111211
Learmonth 1 01001111
Alice Springs 1 00101111
Culgoora 2 00102111
Gingin 2 00001122
Canberra 1 00002110
Launceston 3 01102211
Hobart 2 00002210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Apr :
Macquarie Island 1 00102100
Casey 6 13201222
Mawson 29 31222275
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 2200 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Apr 5 Quiet
26 Apr 10 Quiet to unsettled, some active periods possible
27 Apr 12 Mostly unsettled, some active periods possible
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian
region during the UT day, 24 April. Conditions are expected to
be mainly quiet on 25 April. Due to the effect of a positive
polarity coronal hole (CH91+) solar winds may become enhanced
late on UT day 25 April or early on 26 April. This may result
in unsettled conditions with the possibility of some active periods
on 26 and 27 April. Mostly quiet conditions may be expected on
25 April.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal
26 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
27 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values with
periods of minor depressions as well as enhancements in low-
and mid-latitude areas on UT day 24 April. Periods of minor MUF
enhancements were also recorded in some mid- to high-latitude
areas on this day. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected
on 25 April. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions are expected on 26 and 27 April.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Apr 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 2
Apr 2
May 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
26 Apr 2 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
27 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values over
most of the Aus/NZ region with periods of minor depressions as
well as enhancements in the northern areas on UT day 24 April.
Periods of minor MUF enhancements were also recorded in some
southern areas on this day. Mostly normal HF conditions may be
expected in the Aus/NZ region on 25 April. Minor to moderate
MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions are expected
on 26 and 27 April.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Apr
Speed: 423 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 186000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list