[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 April 18 issued 2342 UT on 21 Apr 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Sun Apr 22 09:42:58 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 APRIL 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 22 APRIL - 24 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Apr:  77/16

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Apr             23 Apr             24 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              78/17              78/17

COMMENT: Solar activity was at Very Low levels on UT day 21 April. 
Very Low levels of solar flare activity are expected for the 
next three UT days, 22-24 April, with a chance of C-class flares. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available imagery 
during the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed was around 620 
km/s in the first half of the UT day 21 April, then started a 
gradual decline and is currently around 560 km/s. The IMF Bt 
peaked at 6.95 nT at 21/0700UT then declined, currently around 
5 nT. The Bz component of IMF fluctuated between -5 nT and 6 
nT in the first half of the UT day, and is currently fluctuating 
between +/-2 nT. Solar winds are expected to continue to decline 
on 22-23 April, returning to nominal values on 24 April, as the 
influence of the coronal hole wanes.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 21 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22332221
      Cocos Island         6   22222220
      Darwin               7   22322221
      Townsville           8   22332221
      Learmonth           11   22333331
      Alice Springs        8   22332220
      Culgoora             8   22332220
      Gingin              12   32333331
      Canberra             8   22332221
      Launceston          12   23433221
      Hobart               9   22333220    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    22   32545421
      Casey               16   34432332
      Mawson              55   64543674
      Davis               34   33444662

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              52   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            40   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        29
           Planetary             38   3566 4453     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled, with the chance of an isolated 
                Active period
23 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled
24 Apr     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled across the 
Australian region during the UT day, 21 April. Conditions are 
expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels on UT day 22 April, 
with the chance of an isolated Active period, mainly Quiet with 
some Unsettled periods on 23 April then returning to Quiet conditions 
on 24 April.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
21 Apr    -2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      2
Apr      2
May      1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Apr    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
23 Apr     2    Near predicted monthly values
24 Apr     2    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 21 April, MUFs were mainly near predicted 
monthly values over most of the Aus/NZ region. There were minor 
depressions in the Niue Island Region during the local day and 
moderate depressions in the Southern Australian Region during 
the local day and the local night. There were cases of Sporadic 
E blanketing. MUFs may experience minor to moderate depressions 
on 22 April due to recent geomagnetic activity, returning to 
near predicted monthly values on 23-24 April.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Apr
Speed: 501 km/sec  Density:   13.8 p/cc  Temp:   323000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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