[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 April 18 issued 2344 UT on 20 Apr 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 21 09:44:11 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 APRIL 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 21 APRIL - 23 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Apr: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Apr 22 Apr 23 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was at Very Low levels on UT day 20 April.
Very Low levels of solar flare activity are expected for the
next three UT days, 21-23 April, with a remote chance of C-class
flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
imagery during the last 24 hours. A weak shock was observed in
the solar wind at 2321UT on 19 April in response to a co-rotating
interaction region (CIR) ahead of the high speed stream (HSS)
from a coronal hole. The solar wind speed reached a peak of 637
km/s at 20/1932UT and is currently around 620 km/s. The IMF Bt
peaked at 23 nT at 20/0517UT then declined, currently around
5 nT. The Bz component of IMF reached a minimum of -19.66 nT
at 20/0812UT, and is currently fluctuating between -5 nT to 4
nT. Solar winds are expected to remain enhanced on 21 April due
to the influence of the coronal hole then start to wane on 22
April.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Apr: Quiet to Major
Storm
Estimated Indices 20 Apr : A K
Australian Region 30 33465442
Cocos Island 24 33354451
Darwin 22 33454341
Townsville 30 43465342
Learmonth 32 33555452
Alice Springs 30 33465442
Culgoora 27 23465431
Gingin 37 33464562
Canberra 34 33474432
Launceston 52 34485442
Hobart 37 24475432
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Apr :
Macquarie Island 62 25675663
Casey 22 33453343
Mawson 89 33664595
Davis 52 22644675
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 29
Planetary 48
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Apr 22 Unsettled to Active, with possible isolated Minor
Storm periods
22 Apr 13 Quiet to Unsettled, with possible isolated Active
periods
23 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 20 April and
is current for 20-21 Apr. In the SWS magnetometer data for 20
Apr, a weak (10nT) impulse was observed at 0022UT. Magnetic conditions
were at Quiet to Active levels, with periods of Minor to Major
Storm levels, across the Australian region during the UT day,
20 April. Conditions are expected to be at Unsettled to Active
levels on UT day 21 April with possible isolated Minor Storm
periods. Quiet to Unsettled levels are expected on UT day 22
April, with possible isolated Active periods, then Quiet to Unsettled
on UT day 23 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Apr Fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Apr Fair Fair Fair-poor
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Apr 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 2
Apr 2
May 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Apr -5 Depressed 15 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
22 Apr -5 Depressed 15 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
23 Apr 2 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 20 April, MUFs were mainly enhanced above
predicted monthly values over most of the Aus/NZ region. There
were minor depressions in the Niue Island Region during the local
day and the Southern Australian Region after local dawn. There
were a few cases of Sporadic E blanketing. MUFs are expected
to have minor to moderate depressions on 21-22 April due to current
geomagnetic activity, returning to near predicted monthly values
on 23 April.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Apr
Speed: 288 km/sec Density: 9.9 p/cc Temp: 8650 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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