[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 April 18 issued 2336 UT on 22 Apr 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 23 09:36:17 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 APRIL 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 23 APRIL - 25 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Apr: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Apr 24 Apr 25 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was at Very Low levels on UT day 22 April.
Very Low levels of solar flare activity are expected for the
next three UT days, 23-25 April, with a chance of C-class flares.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available imagery
during the last 24 hours. The solar wind speed declined from
around 560 km/s to around 440 km/s on the UT day 22 April. The
IMF Bt peaked at 5.95 nT at 22/1129UT then gradually declined,
currently around 4 nT. The Bz component of IMF fluctuated between
+/-4 nT. Solar winds are expected to continue to decline on 23
April, returning to nominal values on 24 April, as the influence
of the coronal hole wanes. The solar wind is expected to become
enhanced late on UT day 25 April due to the influence of a positive
polarity, north polar coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 11102111
Cocos Island 2 11101110
Darwin 3 11202111
Townsville 5 22112112
Learmonth 3 12102111
Alice Springs 3 11102111
Culgoora 2 11102011
Gingin 4 21102121
Canberra 2 11102011
Launceston 4 12212111
Hobart 3 11212011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Apr :
Macquarie Island 2 11201000
Casey 10 34322111
Mawson 11 33311124
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 3332 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Apr 5 Quiet
24 Apr 5 Quiet
25 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled, with possible isolated Active
periods
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet across the Australian
region during the UT day, 22 April. Conditions are expected to
be mainly Quiet on 23-24 April. Solar winds may become enhanced
late on UT day 25 April, which may result in Unsettled conditions
with possible isolated Active periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Apr -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 2
Apr 2
May 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Apr 2 Near predicted monthly values
24 Apr 2 Near predicted monthly values
25 Apr 2 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 22 April, MUFs were mainly near predicted
monthly values over most of the Aus/NZ region. There were minor
to moderate depressions in the Southern Australian Region during
the local night. There were widespread cases of Sporadic E blanketing.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values on 23-25
April.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Apr
Speed: 576 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 409000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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