[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 April 18 issued 2336 UT on 16 Apr 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 17 09:36:52 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 APRIL 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 17 APRIL - 19 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Apr: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Apr 18 Apr 19 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was at Very Low levels on UT day 16 April.
Very Low levels of solar flare activity are expected for the
next three UT days, 17-19 April, with a remote chance of C-class
flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
imagery during the last 24 hours. On UT day 16 April the solar
wind speed was around 300 km/s, currently 281 km/s. The IMF Bt
ranged between 1 nT and 5 nT and the Bz component of IMF was
between -3 nT and 2 nT. Solar winds are expected to remain at
mostly near nominal levels for the next two UT days 17-18 April
then become enhanced on 19 April due to the influence of a negative-polarity
equatorial coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Apr : A K
Australian Region 0 10000100
Cocos Island 0 11000000
Darwin 1 11000101
Townsville 1 11000101
Learmonth 1 10000200
Alice Springs 1 10000101
Culgoora 0 00000100
Gingin 0 10000100
Canberra 0 00000100
Launceston 2 01011200
Hobart 0 00001100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 00010100
Casey 4 22310101
Mawson 9 32101105
Davis 3 22211000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2111 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Apr 4 Quiet
18 Apr 4 Quiet
19 Apr 12 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at Quiet levels across the
Australian region during the UT day, 16 April. Conditions are
expected to be at Quiet levels for the next two days (17-18 April)
then Quiet to Active levels on 19 April due to the influence
of a coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: For 17 April mostly normal HF conditions are expected,
with MUFs being mostly near predicted monthly values.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Apr 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 2
Apr 2
May 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Apr 2 Near predicted monthly values
18 Apr 2 Near predicted monthly values
19 Apr 7 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 16 April, MUFs were mostly near predicted
monthly values over most of the Aus/NZ region, with mild depressions
in the Northern Australian region. There were a few cases of
Sporadic E blanketing. The three day outlook (17-19 April) is
for MUFs to be mostly near predicted monthly levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Apr
Speed: 342 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 17400 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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