[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 April 18 issued 2330 UT on 15 Apr 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 16 09:30:25 EST 2018 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 APRIL 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 16 APRIL - 18 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Apr:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Apr             17 Apr             18 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 15 April, 
with only a few B-class solar flares. Very low levels of solar 
flare activity are expected for the next three UT days, 16-18 
April, with a remote chance of C-class flares. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available imagery during the last 24 
hours. On UT day 15 April the solar wind speed further decreased 
from ~350 km/s to ~300 km/s due to the waning influence of the 
high speed stream from the recurrent trans-equatorial coronal 
hole. The IMF Bt ranged between 3 nT and 6 nT and the Bz component 
of IMF was between -3 nT and 2 nT. The two day (16 - 17 April) 
outlook is for the solar winds to remain mostly near nominal 
levels.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 15 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12103001
      Cocos Island         2   11102000
      Darwin               4   22103001
      Townsville           3   12103001
      Learmonth            4   12103101
      Alice Springs        3   12103000
      Culgoora             4   12203001
      Canberra             3   12103001
      Launceston           5   12213101
      Hobart               4   02213001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     3   01213100
      Casey                9   24322102
      Mawson              18   53212235

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   1000 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Apr     6    Quiet
17 Apr     6    Quiet
18 Apr     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at quiet levels across 
the Australian region during the UT day, 15 April, with one short 
period of unsettled conditions. Conditions are expected to be 
mostly at quiet levels for the next three days (16-18 April) 
as the solar winds are expected to trend mostly near nominal 
levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: For 16 April mostly normal HF conditions are expected, 
with MUFs being mostly near predicted monthly values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Apr     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      2
Apr      2
May      1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Apr     2    Near predicted monthly values
17 Apr     2    Near predicted monthly values
18 Apr     2    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 15 April, MUFs were mostly near predicted 
monthly values over the Aus/NZ region. MUFs were mildly enhanced 
over the Niue Island during local day. There were a few cases 
of Sporadic E blanketing over the low latitude Australian Ionosonde 
sites. The three day outlook (16-18 April) is for MUFs to be 
mostly near predicted monthly levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Apr
Speed: 399 km/sec  Density:    4.5 p/cc  Temp:   160000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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