[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 April 18 issued 2330 UT on 14 Apr 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 15 09:30:26 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 APRIL 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 15 APRIL - 17 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Apr: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Apr 16 Apr 17 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 14 April,
with no notable solar flares. Very low levels of solar flare
activity are expected for the next three UT days, 15-17 April.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available imagery
during the last 24 hours. On UT day 14 April the solar wind speed
gradually decreased from ~450 km/s to ~370 km/s due to the waning
influence of the high speed stream from the recurrent trans-equatorial
coronal hole. The IMF Bt ranged between 3 nT and 5 nT and the
Bz component of IMF was between -4 nT and 3 nT with no significant
prolonged periods with negative Bz. The two day (15 - 16 April)
outlook is for the solar winds to remain mostly near nominal
levels as the effects of the coronal hole wanes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 11012210
Cocos Island 2 11011210
Darwin 4 21111211
Townsville 4 22012211
Learmonth 4 21002311
Alice Springs 2 11001200
Culgoora 3 21012210
Canberra 2 11002210
Launceston 4 11012311
Hobart 3 11002310
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Apr :
Macquarie Island 2 00001310
Casey 9 34211311
Mawson 13 33111344
Davis 7 23112222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 4221 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Apr 7 Quiet
16 Apr 6 Quiet
17 Apr 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at quiet levels across
the Australian region during the UT day, 14 April. Conditions
are expected to be mostly at quiet levels for the next three
days (15-17 April).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: For 15 April mostly normal HF conditions are expected,
with MUFs being mostly near predicted monthly values.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Apr 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 2
Apr 2
May 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Apr 2 Near predicted monthly values
16 Apr 2 Near predicted monthly values
17 Apr 2 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 14 April MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly
values over the Aus/NZ region. MUFs were mildly enhanced over
the Niue Island during local day. There were a few cases of Sporadic
E blanketing over the Australian Ionosonde sites. The three day
outlook (15-17 April) is for MUFs to be mostly near predicted
monthly levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Apr
Speed: 455 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 203000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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