[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 April 18 issued 2330 UT on 13 Apr 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 14 09:30:24 EST 2018 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 APRIL 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 14 APRIL - 16 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Apr:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Apr             15 Apr             16 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 13 April, 
with no solar flares. Very low levels of solar flare activity 
are expected for the next three UT days, 14-16 April. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available imagery during the last 24 
hours. On UT day 13 April the solar wind speed varied in the 
range 420-500 km/s gradually decreasing due to the waning influence 
of the high speed stream from the recurrent trans-equatorial 
coronal hole. The IMF Bt ranged between 3 nT and 7 nT and the 
Bz component of IMF was between -4 nT and 3 nT with one significant 
prolonged periods with negative Bz at the beginning of the UT 
day. The outlook for today (14 April) is for the solar wind speed 
to remain slightly increased.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 13 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22222112
      Cocos Island         5   22111122
      Darwin               4   21112112
      Townsville           6   31222112
      Learmonth            8   32212123
      Alice Springs        5   22212112
      Culgoora             5   21221112
      Canberra             5   22222012
      Launceston           7   32222122
      Hobart               5   21222012    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     6   22323001
      Casey               11   34322023
      Mawson              49   75332147
      Davis               65   93331045

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   2231 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled
15 Apr     7    Quiet
16 Apr     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at quiet levels across 
the Australian region during the UT day, 13 April. Conditions 
are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for 14 April 
in response to the waning coronal hole effects. Then the geomagnetic 
activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
16 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: For 14 April mostly normal HF conditions are expected, 
with MUFs being mostly near predicted monthly values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Apr     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      2
Apr      2
May      1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Apr     2    Near predicted monthly values
15 Apr     2    Near predicted monthly values
16 Apr     2    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 13 April MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly 
values over the Aus/NZ region. MUFs were mildly enhanced over 
the Southern Australian region during local night. There were 
a few cases of Sporadic E blanketing over the Australian Ionosonde 
sites. The three day outlook (14-16 April) is for MUFs to be 
mostly near predicted monthly levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:28%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Apr
Speed: 516 km/sec  Density:    6.0 p/cc  Temp:   301000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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