[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 April 18 issued 2330 UT on 12 Apr 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 13 09:30:29 EST 2018 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 APRIL 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 13 APRIL - 15 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Apr:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Apr             14 Apr             15 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 12 April, 
with no solar flares. Very low levels of solar flare activity 
are expected for the next three UT days, 13-15 April. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available imagery during the last 24 
hours. On UT day 12 April the solar wind speed varied in the 
range 490-530 km/s due to the influence of the high speed stream 
from the recurrent trans-equatorial coronal hole. The IMF Bt 
ranged between 3 nT and 6 nT and the Bz component of IMF was 
between -4 nT and 4 nT without significant prolonged periods 
with negative Bz. The outlook for today (13 April) is for the 
solar wind speed to remain increased.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 12 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   12223222
      Cocos Island         6   12212222
      Darwin               6   11222222
      Townsville           8   12323222
      Learmonth            8   12223322
      Alice Springs        7   12223222
      Culgoora             6   01223222
      Canberra             6   12222222
      Launceston           9   12333222
      Hobart               8   12323222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     8   11243211
      Casey               18   34332235
      Mawson              33   34433266
      Davis               45   24433248

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            19   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             14   4442 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active
14 Apr    12    Unsettled
15 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels 
across the Australian region during the UT day, 12 April. Conditions 
are expected to be at quiet to active levels for 13 April in 
response to the high speed solar wind stream associated with 
the recurrent trans-equatorial coronal hole. Then the geomagnetic 
activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels by 15 
April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: For 13 April mostly normal HF conditions are expected, 
with MUFs being mostly near predicted monthly values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Apr     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      2
Apr      2
May      1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Apr     2    Near predicted monthly values
14 Apr     2    Near predicted monthly values
15 Apr     2    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 12 April MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly 
values over the Aus/NZ region. MUFs were mildly enhanced over 
the Southern Australian region during local night. There were 
a few cases of Sporadic E blanketing over the Australian Ionosonde 
sites. The three day outlook (13-15 April) is for MUFs to be 
mostly near predicted monthly levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Apr
Speed: 543 km/sec  Density:    5.7 p/cc  Temp:   318000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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