[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 April 18 issued 2330 UT on 11 Apr 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 12 09:30:22 EST 2018 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 APRIL 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 12 APRIL - 14 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Apr:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Apr             13 Apr             14 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 11 April, 
with no solar flares. Very low levels of solar flare activity 
are expected for the next three UT days, 12-14 April. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available imagery during the last 24 
hours. On UT day 11 April the solar wind speed varied in the 
range 520-590 km/s due to the influence of the high speed stream 
from the recurrent trans-equatorial coronal hole. The IMF Bt 
ranged between 2 nT and 6 nT and the Bz component of IMF was 
between -5 nT and 5 nT. The outlook for today (12 April) is for 
the solar wind speed to remain increased.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 11 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   32321001
      Cocos Island         5   32211011
      Darwin               6   32321001
      Townsville           7   33321001
      Learmonth            8   33321112
      Alice Springs        6   32321001
      Culgoora             5   32311001
      Gingin               7   32321112
      Canberra             6   22421001
      Launceston           9   33421101
      Hobart               8   33421001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    19   34641000
      Casey               13   44332112
      Mawson              30   44533264
      Davis               24   44532253

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            54   (Unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             16   2442 3233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active
13 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active
14 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at quiet to unsettled 
levels across the Australian region during the UT day, 11 April. 
Conditions are expected to be at quiet to active levels for 12-14 
April in response to the high speed solar wind stream associated 
with the recurrent trans-equatorial coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: For 12 April mostly normal HF conditions are expected, 
with MUFs being mostly near predicted monthly values at low and 
mid latitudes. Periods with mildly depressed MUFs are likely 
at high latitudes during local day due to recent increase in 
geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Apr     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      2
Apr      2
May      1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Apr     2    Near predicted monthly values
13 Apr     2    Near predicted monthly values
14 Apr     2    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 11 April MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly 
values over the Aus/NZ region. There were a few cases of Sporadic 
E blanketing over the Australian Ionosonde sites. The three day 
outlook (12-14 April) is for MUFs to be mostly near predicted 
monthly levels. Mild depressions are likely on 12 April during 
local day in response to the recent increase in geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Apr
Speed: 543 km/sec  Density:    7.3 p/cc  Temp:   295000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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