[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 April 18 issued 2336 UT on 17 Apr 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Wed Apr 18 09:36:12 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 APRIL 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 18 APRIL - 20 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Apr:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Apr             19 Apr             20 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was at Very Low levels on UT day 17 April. 
Very Low levels of solar flare activity are expected for the 
next three UT days, 18-20 April, with a remote chance of C-class 
flares. A weak CME from a filament eruption was observed in the 
LASCO coronagraph imagery in the last 24 hours. Modeling is required 
to determine if it will be geoeffective. On UT day 17 April the 
solar wind speed was around 300 km/s. The IMF Bt ranged between 
1 nT and 5 nT, and the Bz component of IMF was between -3 nT 
and 2 nT. Solar winds are expected to remain at mostly near nominal 
levels for the next UT day 18 April then become enhanced either 
late on 19 April or early on 20 April due to the influence of 
a negative-polarity equatorial coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 17 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100101
      Cocos Island         1   11000101
      Darwin               2   11100102
      Townsville           1   11100101
      Learmonth            1   10101101
      Alice Springs        1   11000002
      Culgoora             1   01100101
      Gingin               0   00000001
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Launceston           1   01101100
      Hobart               0   00001100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                4   22201102
      Mawson              17   42200136
      Davis                6   22221113

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   1101 0101     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Apr     4    Quiet
19 Apr    12    Quiet to Active
20 Apr    12    Quiet to Active

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at Quiet levels across the 
Australian region during the UT day, 17 April. Conditions are 
expected to be at Quiet levels for the next UT day, 18 April, 
then increase to Quiet to Active levels on 19-20 April due to 
the influence of a coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: For 18 April mostly normal HF conditions are expected, 
with MUFs being mostly near predicted monthly values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
17 Apr     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      2
Apr      2
May      1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Apr     2    Near predicted monthly values
19 Apr     7    Near predicted monthly values
20 Apr    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%

COMMENT: On UT day 17 April, MUFs were near predicted monthly 
values over most of the Aus/NZ region. There were minor depressions 
in the Northern Australian region during the local day, and minor 
depressions in the Niue Island Region across the whole day. There 
were a few cases of Sporadic E blanketing. MUFs are expected 
to be mostly near predicted monthly levels on 18-19 April, with 
minor to moderate depressions possible on 20 April due to forecast 
geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Apr
Speed: 305 km/sec  Density:    5.0 p/cc  Temp:    12800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.