[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 April 18 issued 2330 UT on 08 Apr 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 9 09:30:26 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 APRIL 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 09 APRIL - 11 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Apr: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 8 April,
with no solar flares. Very low levels of solar flare activity
are expected for the next three UT days, 9-11 April. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available imagery during the last 24
hours. The solar wind speed on UT day 08 April was near the nominal
level of 350 km/s; the IMF Bt ranged between 2 nT and 5 nT and
the Bz component of IMF was between -4 nT and 3 nT. The outlook
for today (9 April) is for the solar wind speed to remain mostly
near background levels. From UT day 10 April or thereabout, the
solar wind speed is expected to enhance due to the influence
of a high speed stream from the low-latitude negative polarity
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11010121
Cocos Island 1 11010---
Darwin 2 111100--
Townsville 4 22010122
Learmonth 4 22010122
Alice Springs 1 110100--
Culgoora 2 11010111
Gingin 2 111100--
Canberra 1 01010011
Launceston 3 12110121
Hobart 2 12010111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 100000--
Casey 7 332200--
Mawson 5 223101--
Davis 22 13421065
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1111 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Apr 5 Quiet
10 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
11 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet levels across the
Australian region during the UT day, 8 April. Mostly quiet magnetic
conditions are expected for 9 April. Conditions may reach unsettled
to active levels on Apr 10 in response to the arrival corotation
interaction region (CIR) and subsequent high speed stream (HSS)
associated with a low-latitude negative polarity coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to remain mostly near monthly predicted
levels today, 9 Apr.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Apr 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 2
Apr 2
May 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
10 Apr 12 Near predicted monthly values
11 Apr 7 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the Aus/NZ region on UT day 8 April during local day and mild
depression were observed during local night over low latitudes
regions. There were a few cases of Sporadic E blanketing over
the Australian Ionosonde sites. The three day outlook (9-11 April)
is for MUFs to be near predicted monthly levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Apr
Speed: 346 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 19300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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