[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 April 18 issued 2330 UT on 07 Apr 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 8 09:30:22 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 APRIL 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 08 APRIL - 10 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Apr: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 7 April,
with no solar flares. Very low levels of solar flare activity
are expected for the next three UT days, 8-10 April. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available imagery during the last 24
hours. The solar wind speed on UT day 07 April was near the nominal
level of 350 km/s; the IMF Bt ranged between 2 nT and 5 nT and
the Bz component of IMF was between -3 nT and 3 nT. The two day
outlook (08-09 April) is for the solar wind speed to remain mostly
near background levels. From UT day 10 April or thereabout, the
solar wind speed is expected to enhance due to the influence
of a high speed stream from the low-latitude negative polarity
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11111101
Cocos Island 1 11100001
Darwin 2 21101101
Townsville 4 22111111
Learmonth 2 11111101
Alice Springs 1 11001101
Culgoora 2 11111101
Gingin 2 11101101
Canberra 1 11011001
Launceston 4 22112101
Hobart 2 11111101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Apr :
Macquarie Island 1 11111000
Casey 5 32211101
Mawson 9 22101115
Davis 8 22123104
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Apr :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0100 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Apr 5 Quiet
09 Apr 5 Quiet
10 Apr 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet levels across the
Australian region during the UT day, 7 April. Mostly quiet magnetic
conditions are expected for 8-9 April. Conditions may reach unsettled
to active levels on Apr 10 in response to the arrival of the
low-latitude coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to remain mostly near monthly predicted
levels today, 8 Apr.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Apr 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 2
Apr 2
May 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
09 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
10 Apr 12 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the Aus/NZ region on UT day 6 April during local night and mild
depression were observed during local day over low latitudes
regions. There were a few cases of Sporadic E blanketing over
the Australian Ionosonde sites. The three day outlook (8-10 April)
is for MUFs to be near predicted monthly levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Apr
Speed: 380 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 142000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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