[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 April 18 issued 2330 UT on 09 Apr 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 10 09:30:23 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 APRIL 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 10 APRIL - 12 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Apr: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Apr 11 Apr 12 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 9 April,
with no solar flares. Very low levels of solar flare activity
are expected for the next three UT days, 10-12 April. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available imagery during the last 24
hours. The solar wind speed on UT day 9 April was near its background
values up to 0645 UT, then it gradually increased to 480-490
km/s due to the influence of a high speed stream from the recurrent
trans-equatorial coronal hole. The IMF Bt ranged between 4 nT
and 8 nT and the Bz component of IMF was between -5 nT and 7
nT. The outlook for today (10 April) is for the solar wind speed
to remain increased.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 Apr : A K
Australian Region 8 12213223
Cocos Island 6 12112223
Darwin 7 22212223
Townsville 8 22213223
Learmonth 9 12213224
Alice Springs 7 11213223
Culgoora 7 11213223
Gingin 11 12213334
Canberra 7 11213223
Launceston 10 12223224
Hobart 8 12223223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Apr :
Macquarie Island 11 01225223
Casey 13 33323224
Mawson 36 33322367
Davis 22 22322256
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1200 0122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Apr 19 Active
11 Apr 19 Active
12 Apr 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 7 was issued on 9 April and
is current for 10-11 Apr. Magnetic conditions were mostly at
quiet to unsettled levels across the Australian region during
the UT day, 9 April. Conditions are expected to reach active
levels on 10-11 April in response to the observed arrival of
the corotating interaction region (CIR) and subsequent high speed
solar wind stream associated with the recurrent trans-equatorial
coronal hole. Isolated periods with minor storm levels are also
possible on 10-11 April.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
11 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions are expected due to predicted
increase in geomagnetic activity on 10-11 April. MUFs are expected
to remain mostly near predicted monthly values today, 10 April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Apr 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 2
Apr 2
May 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Apr 12 Near predicted monthly values
11 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values
12 Apr 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were variable on UT day 9 April. MUFs
were mildly depressed over the Northern Australian region during
local day, enhanced over the Southern Australian region during
local night, otherwise MUFs were near predicted monthly values.
There were a few cases of Sporadic E blanketing over the Australian
Ionosonde sites. The two day outlook (10-11 April) is for MUFs
to be mostly near predicted monthly levels. Mild enhancements
are also likely in response to the expected increase in geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Apr
Speed: 354 km/sec Density: 6.8 p/cc Temp: 21800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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