[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 April 18 issued 2330 UT on 04 Apr 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 5 09:30:22 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 APRIL 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 05 APRIL - 07 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Apr:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Apr             06 Apr             07 Apr
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 04 April, 
with no solar flares. Very low levels of solar flare activity 
is expected for the next three days (05-07 April), with a remote 
chance of C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed 
in the available imagery during the last 24 hours. The solar 
wind speed on UT day 04 April was near the nominal level of 330 
km/s. During the UT day 04 April, the IMF Bt ranged between 2 
nT and 6 nT. The Bz component of IMF was between -4 nT and 3 
nT. The two day outlook (05-06 April) is for the solar wind speed 
to enhance weakly due to a polar positive polarity coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 04 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11011210
      Cocos Island         2   11011210
      Darwin               2   11011210
      Townsville           3   21011112
      Learmonth            2   01111210
      Alice Springs        2   11011210
      Canberra             2   00021110
      Launceston           4   11022211
      Hobart               2   01021210    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     3   00032100
      Casey                6   23211221
      Mawson               8   11112243
      Davis                5   12211221

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1210 0101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled
06 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled
07 Apr     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet levels across the 
Australian region during the UT day, 04 April. Mostly quiet and 
at times unsettled magnetic conditions are expected for next 
two days (05-06 April) in response to the effects from a polar 
positive polarity coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs are expected to remain mostly near monthly predicted 
levels, today (05 April).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Apr     2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available .
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      2
Apr      2
May      1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Apr    12    Near predicted monthly values
06 Apr     5    Near predicted monthly values
07 Apr     2    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were slightly depressed over the Niue Island Region 
and Northern Australian Region on 04 April. Over other Aus/NZ 
regions, MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly levels on UT 
day 04 April. There were very few incidence of Sporadic E blanketing 
over the low latitude Australian Ionosonde sites. The three day 
outlook (05-07 Apr) is for MUFs to be near monthly predicted 
levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Apr
Speed: 400 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:   183000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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