[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 April 18 issued 2330 UT on 05 Apr 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 6 09:30:25 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 APRIL 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 06 APRIL - 08 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Apr: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Apr 07 Apr 08 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 5 April,
with no solar flares. Very low levels of solar flare activity
are expected for the next three UT days, 6-8 April, with a slight
chance for C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available imagery during the last 24 hours. The solar
wind speed on UT day 5 April gradually increased from 330 km/s
to 450 km/s; the IMF Bt ranged between 3 nT and 9 nT and the
Bz component of IMF was between -5 nT and 7 nT. During the UT
day 6 April the solar wind speed is expected to be moderately
enhanced due to a coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 22111311
Cocos Island 5 21111320
Darwin 5 22111311
Townsville 5 31111212
Learmonth 6 32111311
Alice Springs 3 21000311
Canberra 2 21000211
Launceston 4 22010311
Hobart 2 12000211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Apr :
Macquarie Island 3 21010220
Casey 9 24310321
Mawson 17 43102435
Davis 12 23212424
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1002 2202
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Apr 5 Quiet
08 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels
across the Australian region during the UT day, 5 April. Mostly
quiet and at times unsettled magnetic conditions in response
to the coronal hole effects are expected for next UT day, 6 April.
Mostly quiet magnetic conditions are expected for 7-8 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to remain mostly near monthly predicted
levels today (6 April).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Apr 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 2
Apr 2
May 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
07 Apr 2 Near predicted monthly values
08 Apr 2 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the Aus/NZ region on UT day 5 April. Mild enhancements were observed
over the Southern Australian region during local night. There
were very few incidence of Sporadic E blanketing over the Australian
Ionosonde sites. The three day outlook (6-8 April) is for MUFs
to be near predicted monthly levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Apr
Speed: 334 km/sec Density: 10.5 p/cc Temp: 18800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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