[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 April 18 issued 2330 UT on 05 Apr 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 6 09:30:25 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 APRIL 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 06 APRIL - 08 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Apr:  66/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Apr             07 Apr             08 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 5 April, 
with no solar flares. Very low levels of solar flare activity 
are expected for the next three UT days, 6-8 April, with a slight 
chance for C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed 
in the available imagery during the last 24 hours. The solar 
wind speed on UT day 5 April gradually increased from 330 km/s 
to 450 km/s; the IMF Bt ranged between 3 nT and 9 nT and the 
Bz component of IMF was between -5 nT and 7 nT. During the UT 
day 6 April the solar wind speed is expected to be moderately 
enhanced due to a coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 05 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22111311
      Cocos Island         5   21111320
      Darwin               5   22111311
      Townsville           5   31111212
      Learmonth            6   32111311
      Alice Springs        3   21000311
      Canberra             2   21000211
      Launceston           4   22010311
      Hobart               2   12000211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     3   21010220
      Casey                9   24310321
      Mawson              17   43102435
      Davis               12   23212424

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1002 2202     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled
07 Apr     5    Quiet
08 Apr     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels 
across the Australian region during the UT day, 5 April. Mostly 
quiet and at times unsettled magnetic conditions in response 
to the coronal hole effects are expected for next UT day, 6 April. 
Mostly quiet magnetic conditions are expected for 7-8 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs are expected to remain mostly near monthly predicted 
levels today (6 April).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Apr    10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      2
Apr      2
May      1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Apr     5    Near predicted monthly values
07 Apr     2    Near predicted monthly values
08 Apr     2    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over 
the Aus/NZ region on UT day 5 April. Mild enhancements were observed 
over the Southern Australian region during local night. There 
were very few incidence of Sporadic E blanketing over the Australian 
Ionosonde sites. The three day outlook (6-8 April) is for MUFs 
to be near predicted monthly levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Apr
Speed: 334 km/sec  Density:   10.5 p/cc  Temp:    18800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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