[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 April 18 issued 2330 UT on 03 Apr 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 4 09:30:25 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 APRIL 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 04 APRIL - 06 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Apr: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Apr 05 Apr 06 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 03 April,
with only B-class solar flares. Very low levels of solar flare
activity is expected for the next three days (04-06 April), with
a weak chance of C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in the available imagery during the last 24 hours. The
solar wind speed on UT day 03 April decreased from 425 km/s to
350 km/s. During the UT day 03 April, the IMF Bt was mostly steady
near 4 nT and its Bz component was between -2 nT and 3 nT. The
outlook for today (04 Apr) is for the solar wind speed remain
mostly near ambient levels. Some weak enhancements in solar wind
speed is expected from 05 April due to a polar positive polarity
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 12200000
Cocos Island 1 11100000
Darwin 3 22200001
Townsville 2 12200001
Learmonth 2 12200000
Alice Springs 2 12200001
Canberra 2 12200000
Launceston 3 12300000
Hobart 2 12200000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Apr :
Macquarie Island 1 11200000
Casey 6 23410000
Mawson 11 45310000
Davis 5 23320000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2001 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Apr 5 Quiet
05 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet levels across the
Australian region during the UT day, 03 April. Mostly quiet conditions
expected for today, 04 April. Conditions could reach unsettled
levels on 05 April in response to the effects from a polar positive
polarity coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to remain mostly near monthly predicted
levels, today (04 April).
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Apr 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 2
Apr 2
May 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
05 Apr 12 Near predicted monthly values
06 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly levels on UT
day 03 April Aus/NZ regions. There were very few incidence of
Sporadic E blanketing over the low latitude Australian Ionosonde
sites. The three day outlook (04-06 Apr) is for MUFs to be near
monthly predicted levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Apr
Speed: 435 km/sec Density: 5.5 p/cc Temp: 203000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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