[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 April 18 issued 2330 UT on 03 Apr 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 4 09:30:25 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 APRIL 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 04 APRIL - 06 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Apr:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Apr             05 Apr             06 Apr
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 03 April, 
with only B-class solar flares. Very low levels of solar flare 
activity is expected for the next three days (04-06 April), with 
a weak chance of C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were 
observed in the available imagery during the last 24 hours. The 
solar wind speed on UT day 03 April decreased from 425 km/s to 
350 km/s. During the UT day 03 April, the IMF Bt was mostly steady 
near 4 nT and its Bz component was between -2 nT and 3 nT. The 
outlook for today (04 Apr) is for the solar wind speed remain 
mostly near ambient levels. Some weak enhancements in solar wind 
speed is expected from 05 April due to a polar positive polarity 
coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 03 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   12200000
      Cocos Island         1   11100000
      Darwin               3   22200001
      Townsville           2   12200001
      Learmonth            2   12200000
      Alice Springs        2   12200001
      Canberra             2   12200000
      Launceston           3   12300000
      Hobart               2   12200000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     1   11200000
      Casey                6   23410000
      Mawson              11   45310000
      Davis                5   23320000

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   2001 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Apr     5    Quiet
05 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled
06 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet levels across the 
Australian region during the UT day, 03 April. Mostly quiet conditions 
expected for today, 04 April. Conditions could reach unsettled 
levels on 05 April in response to the effects from a polar positive 
polarity coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs are expected to remain mostly near monthly predicted 
levels, today (04 April).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Apr     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      2
Apr      2
May      1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Apr     5    Near predicted monthly values
05 Apr    12    Near predicted monthly values
06 Apr     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly levels on UT 
day 03 April Aus/NZ regions. There were very few incidence of 
Sporadic E blanketing over the low latitude Australian Ionosonde 
sites. The three day outlook (04-06 Apr) is for MUFs to be near 
monthly predicted levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Apr
Speed: 435 km/sec  Density:    5.5 p/cc  Temp:   203000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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