[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 September 17 issued 2352 UT on 25 Sep 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 26 09:52:31 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 SEPTEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 SEPTEMBER - 28 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Sep: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Sep 27 Sep 28 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 25 September.
Expect mostly low levels of solar activity for the next three
days (26-28 September), with a remote chance of M-class flares.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery
on UT day 25 September. From 24/2100 UT, the solar winds experienced
a short period of weak enhancement due to the arrival of high
speed streams associated with a small recurrent equatorial coronal
hole. The solar wind speed peaked at 455 km/s at 25/0758 UT then
decreased, currently around 340 km/s. In the past 24 hours, the
IMF Bt peaked at 9.25 nT at 25/00:30 UT then decreased, currently
around 1.5 nT. The Bz component of IMF reached a maximum southward
value of -9.6 nT at 24/22:30 UT, then returned to smaller fluctuations
between around -2 nT and +3 nT. Today, 26 September the solar
wind speed is expected to continue to return to nominal values
as the effect of the small recurrent equatorial coronal hole
wanes. Further enhancements in the solar wind speed are expected
from the 27 September as another but much larger polar coronal
hole extending to the solar equator, approaches geoeffective
location on the solar disk.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 32110001
Cocos Island 3 31100100
Darwin 3 32110001
Townsville 3 32110001
Alice Springs 3 32000001
Norfolk Island 2 -2120001
Culgoora 2 22010000
Gingin 3 31100111
Camden 2 22010000
Canberra 1 22000000
Launceston 3 22111001
Hobart 2 22100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Sep :
Macquarie Island 1 21000000
Casey 10 44310111
Mawson 10 34310023
Davis 12 33421133
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 5 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1201 1232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Sep 6 Quiet
27 Sep 25 Active to Minor Storm
28 Sep 25 Active to Minor Storm
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mainly Quiet across the Australian
region during the UT day, 25 September, with an Unsettled period
early in the UT day due to the arrival of a HSS from a coronal
hole. Today, 26 September, the magnetic activity is expected
to be mostly Quiet to Unsettled as the current coronal hole effects
wane. However, later on 27 September the magnetic activity is
expected to reach Unsettled to Active levels with isolated periods
of Minor Storm levels, particularly at higher latitudes, due
to a large recurrent polar coronal hole reaching geoeffective
location on the solar disk. Magnetic activity is expected to
be at Active levels on 28 September with possible Minor Storm
levels and isolated periods of Major Storms in the Antarctic
region.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Sep Normal Normal Normal
27 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
28 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly slightly enhanced to near predicted
monthly values over the last 24 hours. Slightly enhanced MUFs
compared to predicted monthly values are expected for today,
26 September.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Sep 22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 10
Sep 5
Oct 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Sep 15 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Sep 30 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Sep 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly slightly enhanced to near predicted
monthly values over the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region.
The three day outlook (26-28 September) is for the MUFs to be
slightly enhanced compared to the predicted monthly levels. This
is in response to the forecasted active magnetic conditions associated
with the passage of the two coronal holes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Sep
Speed: 337 km/sec Density: 9.8 p/cc Temp: 25200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list