[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 September 17 issued 2349 UT on 26 Sep 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 27 09:49:03 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 SEPTEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 SEPTEMBER - 29 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Sep: 91/36
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Sep 28 Sep 29 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 91/36 91/36 91/36
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 26 September.
Expect Very Low to Low levels of solar activity for the next
three days (27-29 September), with a chance of C-class flares
and a slight chance of M-class flares. No Earth directed CMEs
were observed in the available LASCO imagery on UT day 26 September.
The solar wind speed gradually decreased over the past 24 hours,
starting around 340 km/s and dropping to around 300 km/s. It
experienced a small increase around 26/2300UT and is currently
around 350 km/s. The IMF Bt remained below 5 nT until 26/2300UT
when it started to increase, currently around 9 nT. The Bz component
of IMF varied between -2 nT and 4 nT and was mainly northward,
but went southward around 26/2300 and is currently around -7.5
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain at nominal values
in the first part of the UT day, 27 September, then become enhanced
later in the day due to the arrival of a CIR and CH HSS stream
associated with a recurrent polar-connected positive polarity
coronal hole. The solar wind is expected to remain enhanced on
28-29 September but start to decline on 29 September.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 12111001
Cocos Island 1 01110000
Darwin 2 12110001
Townsville 2 12111001
Alice Springs 2 12110001
Norfolk Island 3 22210001
Culgoora 2 12111001
Gingin 2 12111001
Camden 2 11211001
Canberra 1 11101000
Launceston 3 12211001
Hobart 2 02201001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Sep :
Macquarie Island 1 01101000
Casey 7 24211102
Mawson 3 22120000
Davis 6 2332000-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 3210 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Sep 25 Active to Minor Storm
28 Sep 25 Active to Minor Storm
29 Sep 20 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 48 was issued on 26 September
and is current for 27-29 Sep. Magnetic conditions were Quiet
across the Australian region during the UT day, 26 September.
Today, 27 September, the magnetic activity is expected to be
at Quiet levels early in the day. Later in the day, magnetic
activity is expected to reach Unsettled to Active levels with
isolated periods of Minor Storm levels, particularly at higher
latitudes, due to the arrival of a CIR and CH HSS stream associated
with a large recurrent polar-connected coronal hole. Magnetic
activity is expected to be at Active levels on 28 September,
with possible Minor Storm levels and isolated periods of Major
Storms in the Antarctic region, then Unsettled to Active on 29
September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
28 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
29 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Possible degraded HF communication between 27-28 September
due to minor geomagnetic storming with possible minor depressions
at higher latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Sep 25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 10
Sep 5
Oct 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Sep 30 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Sep 20 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Sep 15 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Over the last 24 hours, MUFs were near predicted monthly
values in the Northern Australian Region and mostly slightly
enhanced in the higher latitudes. The three day outlook (27-29
September) is for the MUFs to be slightly enhanced compared to
the predicted monthly levels, but with possible minor depressions
at higher latitudes. This is in response to the forecasted Active
to Minor Storm magnetic conditions associated with the passage
of a coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Sep
Speed: 385 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 118000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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