[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 September 17 issued 2349 UT on 26 Sep 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 27 09:49:03 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 SEPTEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 SEPTEMBER - 29 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Sep:  91/36


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Sep             28 Sep             29 Sep
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    91/36              91/36              91/36

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 26 September. 
Expect Very Low to Low levels of solar activity for the next 
three days (27-29 September), with a chance of C-class flares 
and a slight chance of M-class flares. No Earth directed CMEs 
were observed in the available LASCO imagery on UT day 26 September. 
The solar wind speed gradually decreased over the past 24 hours, 
starting around 340 km/s and dropping to around 300 km/s. It 
experienced a small increase around 26/2300UT and is currently 
around 350 km/s. The IMF Bt remained below 5 nT until 26/2300UT 
when it started to increase, currently around 9 nT. The Bz component 
of IMF varied between -2 nT and 4 nT and was mainly northward, 
but went southward around 26/2300 and is currently around -7.5 
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain at nominal values 
in the first part of the UT day, 27 September, then become enhanced 
later in the day due to the arrival of a CIR and CH HSS stream 
associated with a recurrent polar-connected positive polarity 
coronal hole. The solar wind is expected to remain enhanced on 
28-29 September but start to decline on 29 September.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 26 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   12111001
      Cocos Island         1   01110000
      Darwin               2   12110001
      Townsville           2   12111001
      Alice Springs        2   12110001
      Norfolk Island       3   22210001
      Culgoora             2   12111001
      Gingin               2   12111001
      Camden               2   11211001
      Canberra             1   11101000
      Launceston           3   12211001
      Hobart               2   02201001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     1   01101000
      Casey                7   24211102
      Mawson               3   22120000
      Davis                6   2332000-

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   3210 1121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Sep    25    Active to Minor Storm
28 Sep    25    Active to Minor Storm
29 Sep    20    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 48 was issued on 26 September 
and is current for 27-29 Sep. Magnetic conditions were Quiet 
across the Australian region during the UT day, 26 September. 
Today, 27 September, the magnetic activity is expected to be 
at Quiet levels early in the day. Later in the day, magnetic 
activity is expected to reach Unsettled to Active levels with 
isolated periods of Minor Storm levels, particularly at higher 
latitudes, due to the arrival of a CIR and CH HSS stream associated 
with a large recurrent polar-connected coronal hole. Magnetic 
activity is expected to be at Active levels on 28 September, 
with possible Minor Storm levels and isolated periods of Major 
Storms in the Antarctic region, then Unsettled to Active on 29 
September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Sep      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
28 Sep      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
29 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Possible degraded HF communication between 27-28 September 
due to minor geomagnetic storming with possible minor depressions 
at higher latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Sep    25

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      10
Sep      5
Oct      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Sep    30    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Sep    20    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Sep    15    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Over the last 24 hours, MUFs were near predicted monthly 
values in the Northern Australian Region and mostly slightly 
enhanced in the higher latitudes. The three day outlook (27-29 
September) is for the MUFs to be slightly enhanced compared to 
the predicted monthly levels, but with possible minor depressions 
at higher latitudes. This is in response to the forecasted Active 
to Minor Storm magnetic conditions associated with the passage 
of a coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Sep
Speed: 385 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:   118000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

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Bureau of Meteorology
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