[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 September 17 issued 2330 UT on 21 Sep 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 22 09:30:18 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 SEPTEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 SEPTEMBER - 24 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Sep:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Sep             23 Sep             24 Sep
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      Possible
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               85/27              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 21 September, 
with no flares. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available 
LASCO imagery. Expect mostly very low to low levels of solar 
activity for the next three UT days (22-24 September) with a 
chance of M-class flares for 24 September due to returning AR 
2673. On UT day 21 September, the solar wind speed was gradually 
decreasing on average from 450 km/s to 400 km/s, varying in the 
range 400-470 km/s. The IMF Bt varied between 3 nT and 6 nT during 
the UT day. The Bz component of IMF fluctuated between -4 nT 
and +2 nT. The two day outlook (22-23 September) is for the solar 
wind speed to remain near its nominal values.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 21 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11222011
      Cocos Island         3   11111021
      Darwin               4   11222011
      Townsville           4   21222011
      Learmonth            4   11122022
      Alice Springs        3   11122011
      Norfolk Island       4   21312010
      Culgoora             4   11222011
      Gingin               4   10122121
      Camden               4   11222011
      Canberra             4   11222011
      Launceston           6   12323011
      Hobart               4   11222011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     6   02333100
      Casey               11   34232122
      Mawson              20   23232146
      Davis               10   22343121

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9   3322 2122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Sep     7    Quiet
23 Sep     7    Quiet
24 Sep    13    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed across the 
Australian region during the UT day, 21 September. Mostly quiet 
conditions are expected for the next 2 UT days, 22-23 September. 
The geomagnetic activity can reach active levels on 24 September 
due to coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values over the last 
24 hours. Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 3 UT 
days, 22-24 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Sep     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      10
Sep      5
Oct      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Sep     5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
23 Sep     5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
24 Sep     5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over 
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region. Minor depressions 
were also observed in the Northern Australian region during local 
night. Similar HF conditions are expected for the next three 
UT days, 22-24 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+09   (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:31%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Sep
Speed: 472 km/sec  Density:    5.3 p/cc  Temp:   202000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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