[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 September 17 issued 2330 UT on 22 Sep 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 23 09:30:21 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 SEPTEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 SEPTEMBER - 25 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Sep: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Sep 24 Sep 25 Sep
Activity Very low to low Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts None expected Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 22 September,
with no flares. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available
LASCO imagery. Expect mostly very low to low levels of solar
activity for 23 September. There is a chance of M-class flares
for 24-25 September due to returning AR 2673 which previously
produced M- and X-class flares. During the UT day 22 September
the solar wind speed decreased from 440 km/s to 380 km/s and
the IMF Bt varied between 3 nT and 5 nT. The Bz component of
IMF fluctuated between -5 nT and +3 nT. During the UT day 23
September the solar wind speed is expected to remain near its
background values, then it is expected to increase due to arrival
of the high speed stream associated with a recurrent coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 11101111
Cocos Island 1 11100110
Darwin 3 11101112
Townsville 3 11111121
Alice Springs 2 12001111
Norfolk Island 3 21201012
Culgoora 2 11101111
Gingin 4 21101221
Camden 3 11102121
Canberra 3 11102121
Launceston 5 12212122
Hobart 3 12102111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Sep :
Macquarie Island 4 11203110
Casey 7 23321121
Mawson 15 33231344
Davis 9 23331222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 1132 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Sep 9 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Sep 20 Active
25 Sep 16 Active
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed across the
Australian region during the UT day, 22 September. Mostly quiet
conditions are expected for 23 September. At the end of the UT
day, 23 September, the geomagnetic activity can reach active
levels due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
25 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values over the last
24 hours. Similar MUFs are expected for the next 3 UT days, 23-25
September. At high and mid latitudes mildly degraded HF conditions
are possible for 24-25 September due to expected increase in
geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Sep 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 10
Sep 5
Oct 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Sep 5 Near predicted monthly values
24 Sep 5 Near predicted monthly values
25 Sep 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region. Similar MUFs are
expected for the next three UT days, 23-25 September. At high
and mid latitudes mildly degraded HF conditions are possible
for 24-25 September due to expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:33%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Sep
Speed: 429 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 196000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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