[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 September 17 issued 2330 UT on 19 Sep 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 20 09:30:48 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 SEPTEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 SEPTEMBER - 22 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Sep:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Sep             21 Sep             22 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               73/9               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 19 September, 
with no flares. Expect very low levels of solar activity for 
the next three UT days (20-22 September) with a weak chance of 
C-class flares. On UT day 19 September, the solar wind speed 
was gradually decreasing from 560 km/s to 500 km/s. The IMF Bt 
varied between 3 nT and 5 nT during the UT day. The Bz component 
of IMF fluctuated between -4 nT and 4 nT. The two day outlook 
(20-21 September) is for the solar wind speed to gradually decrease 
as the coronal hole effects wane.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11122221
      Cocos Island         5   1-111231
      Darwin               5   12122221
      Townsville           4   11112221
      Learmonth            7   12122232
      Alice Springs        4   11022221
      Norfolk Island       2   11011111
      Culgoora             5   11122221
      Gingin               6   11112232
      Camden               4   11121221
      Canberra             2   00021120
      Launceston           7   12132222
      Hobart               4   11021221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     5   11032121
      Casey               12   34322232
      Mawson              28   43224365
      Davis               25   24323265

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              38   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        21
           Planetary             24   5454 3233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled
21 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled
22 Sep     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed across the 
Australian region during the UT day, 19 September. Mostly quiet 
conditions are expected for the next 3 UT days, 20-22 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values over the last 
24 hours. Similar HF conditions are expected for today, 20 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Sep    -2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      10
Sep      5
Oct      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15%
21 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15%
22 Sep     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over 
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region with minor depressions 
during local night. MUFs in the Australian/NZ region are expected 
to be slightly depressed to near monthly predicted values for 
the next three UT days (20-22 September). These minor depressions 
are the aftermath of the recent increase in geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:28%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Sep
Speed: 638 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:   355000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.




More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list