[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 September 17 issued 2330 UT on 19 Sep 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 20 09:30:48 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 SEPTEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 SEPTEMBER - 22 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Sep: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Sep 21 Sep 22 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 73/9 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 19 September,
with no flares. Expect very low levels of solar activity for
the next three UT days (20-22 September) with a weak chance of
C-class flares. On UT day 19 September, the solar wind speed
was gradually decreasing from 560 km/s to 500 km/s. The IMF Bt
varied between 3 nT and 5 nT during the UT day. The Bz component
of IMF fluctuated between -4 nT and 4 nT. The two day outlook
(20-21 September) is for the solar wind speed to gradually decrease
as the coronal hole effects wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 11122221
Cocos Island 5 1-111231
Darwin 5 12122221
Townsville 4 11112221
Learmonth 7 12122232
Alice Springs 4 11022221
Norfolk Island 2 11011111
Culgoora 5 11122221
Gingin 6 11112232
Camden 4 11121221
Canberra 2 00021120
Launceston 7 12132222
Hobart 4 11021221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Sep :
Macquarie Island 5 11032121
Casey 12 34322232
Mawson 28 43224365
Davis 25 24323265
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 24 5454 3233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Sep 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed across the
Australian region during the UT day, 19 September. Mostly quiet
conditions are expected for the next 3 UT days, 20-22 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values over the last
24 hours. Similar HF conditions are expected for today, 20 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Sep -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 10
Sep 5
Oct 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
21 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
22 Sep 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region with minor depressions
during local night. MUFs in the Australian/NZ region are expected
to be slightly depressed to near monthly predicted values for
the next three UT days (20-22 September). These minor depressions
are the aftermath of the recent increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:28%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Sep
Speed: 638 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 355000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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