[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 September 17 issued 2330 UT on 18 Sep 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 19 09:30:19 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 SEPTEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 SEPTEMBER - 21 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Sep: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Sep 20 Sep 21 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 18 September,
with no flares. Expect very low levels of solar activity for
the next three UT days (19-21 September) with a weak chance of
C-class flares. On UT day 18 September, the solar wind speed
remained at high to very high levels and was gradually decreasing,
varying in the range 570-700 km/s. This was in response to the
high speed streams emanating from the Northern Hemisphere coronal
hole. The IMF Bt varied between 1 nT and 7 nT during the UT day.
The Bz component of IMF fluctuated between -5 nT and 5 nT. The
three day outlook (19-21 September) is for the solar winds to
gradually decrease as the effects of coronal hole wane. ACE EPAM
data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 18/1815
UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity
over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 18 Sep : A K
Australian Region 12 32433212
Cocos Island 8 22323221
Darwin 12 32433212
Townsville 13 32443212
Learmonth 13 32433223
Alice Springs 12 32433212
Norfolk Island 13 32532212
Culgoora 13 32443212
Gingin 15 32443322
Canberra 9 22432112
Launceston 18 33543223
Hobart 16 32543212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Sep :
Macquarie Island 28 33655312
Casey 17 44333323
Mawson 49 56543366
Davis 29 35553244
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 43 (Unsettled)
Canberra 41 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 24
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16 4433 3432
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Sep 13 Unsettled to Active
20 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions were observed
across the Australian region during the UT day, 18 September.
These disturbed conditions were in response to the high speed
streams (HSS) associated with the polar coronal hole. For 19
September the magnetic activity is expected to be between unsettled
to active levels, with a small chance for an isolated minor storm
period, since the solar wind speeds are expected to be at moderately
elevated levels. Mostly quiet conditions are expected from 20
September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values over the last
24 hours. Similar HF conditions are expected for today, 19 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Sep 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 10
Sep 5
Oct 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Sep 5 Near predicted monthly values
20 Sep 5 Near predicted monthly values
21 Sep 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region. MUFs in the Australian/NZ
region are expected to be slightly depressed to near monthly
predicted values for the next three UT days (19-21 September).
These minor depressions are the aftermath of the recent increase
in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:29%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Sep
Speed: 653 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 338000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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