[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 September 17 issued 2330 UT on 17 Sep 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 18 09:30:20 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 SEPTEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 SEPTEMBER - 20 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Sep: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Sep 19 Sep 20 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 17 September,
with no flares. Expect very low levels of solar activity for
the next three UT days (18-20 September) with a weak chance of
C-class flares. The CMEs first observed in the satellite imagery
starting at 16/1212 UT and another starting at 17/1200 UT are
determined to be far side events and therefore will not arrive
at earth. The solar wind speed remained at very high level, 650-750
km/s, on UT day 17 September. This was in response to the high
speed streams emanating from the Northern Hemisphere coronal
hole. The IMF Bt varied between 4 nT and 8 nT during the UT day.
The Bz component of IMF fluctuated between -5 nT and 5 nT. The
two day outlook (18-19 September) is for the solar winds to gradually
start decreasing as the effects of coronal hole begin to wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 17 Sep : A K
Australian Region 10 22224321
Cocos Island 8 12224310
Darwin 9 22224311
Townsville 10 22224321
Learmonth 17 22235521
Alice Springs 10 22224321
Norfolk Island 7 22223211
Culgoora 8 22223321
Gingin 13 32224422
Camden - --------
Canberra 8 22223321
Launceston 14 22334422
Hobart 9 22233321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Sep :
Macquarie Island 22 33245531
Casey 17 34433332
Mawson 30 55544342
Davis 16 24443322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 13 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 66 (Active)
Canberra 75 (Active)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 30 5633 4433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
19 Sep 11 Unsettled
20 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions were observed
across the Australian region during the UT day, 17 September.
These disturbed conditions were in response to the high speed
streams (HSS) associated with the polar coronal hole. The two
day (18 - 19 September) forecast is for the magnetic activity
to be between unsettled to active levels, and sometimes may be
reaching minor storm levels, since the solar wind speeds are
expected to be at moderately elevated levels. Mostly quiet conditions
are expected from 20 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values over the last
24 hours. Similar HF conditions are expected for today, 18 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Sep 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 10
Sep 5
Oct 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
19 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
20 Sep 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region, with minor periods
of enhancements. MUFs in the Australian/NZ region are expected
to be slightly depressed to near monthly predicted values for
the next three UT days (18-20 September). These minor depressions
are the aftermath of the observed minor storm conditions on 15-16
September
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Sep
Speed: 694 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 479000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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