[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 September 17 issued 2330 UT on 15 Sep 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 16 09:30:19 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 SEPTEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 SEPTEMBER - 18 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Sep: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Sep 17 Sep 18 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 15 September,
with no flares. Expect very low levels of solar activity for
the next three UT days (16-18 September) with some chance of
C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery for the UT day 15 September. The solar wind
speed was high, 650-720 km/s in response to the arrival of the
high speed streams (HSS) from the Northern Hemisphere coronal
hole. The IMF Bt was steady, varying in the range 4-7 nT with
few prolonged periods of negative Bz. The two day outlook (16-17
September) is for the solar winds to be at high levels as to
the HSS associated with coronal hole is expected to persist for
a few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Sep: Unsettled to
Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 15 Sep : A K
Australian Region 22 33534343
Cocos Island 14 32423242
Darwin 16 32434233
Townsville 22 43444343
Learmonth 24 33534353
Alice Springs 21 33534243
Norfolk Island 16 33443232
Culgoora 19 33434343
Gingin 21 32434353
Camden 23 335443-3
Canberra 23 33544343
Launceston 25 33544344
Hobart 23 33544343
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Sep :
Macquarie Island 45 35556643
Casey 24 44443253
Mawson 69 64544486
Davis 46 54543375
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Sep :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Alice Springs 20 (Quiet)
Gingin 102 (Major storm)
Canberra 89 (Minor storm)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 35
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 27 3212 3653
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Sep 25 Active
17 Sep 14 Unsettled to Active
18 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 46 was issued on 15 September
and is current for 15-16 Sep. Unsettled to minor storm conditions
were observed across the Australian region during the UT day,
15 September. These disturbed conditions were in response to
the arrival of CIR and subsequent HSS associated with the coronal
hole. The two day forecast is for the magnetic activity to be
between unsettled to active levels, sometimes it may reach minor
storm levels, since the HSS from coronal hole is expected to
persist for a few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Sep Fair Fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1635UT 10/09, Ended at 1720UT 14/09
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
17 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were slightly higher than the predicted monthly
values over the last 24 hours. Similar HF conditions are expected
for today, 16 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Sep 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 10
Sep 5
Oct 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Sep 10 Near predicted monthly values
17 Sep 5 Near predicted monthly values
18 Sep 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region, with minor periods
of enhancements and depressions. MUFs in the Australian/NZ region
are expected to be between slightly enhanced and near monthly
predicted values for the next three UT days due to forecasted
active geomagnetic conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.2E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Sep
Speed: 420 km/sec Density: 8.0 p/cc Temp: 119000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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