[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 September 17 issued 2330 UT on 15 Sep 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 16 09:30:19 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 SEPTEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 SEPTEMBER - 18 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Sep:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Sep             17 Sep             18 Sep
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    73/9               73/9               75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 15 September, 
with no flares. Expect very low levels of solar activity for 
the next three UT days (16-18 September) with some chance of 
C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph imagery for the UT day 15 September. The solar wind 
speed was high, 650-720 km/s in response to the arrival of the 
high speed streams (HSS) from the Northern Hemisphere coronal 
hole. The IMF Bt was steady, varying in the range 4-7 nT with 
few prolonged periods of negative Bz. The two day outlook (16-17 
September) is for the solar winds to be at high levels as to 
the HSS associated with coronal hole is expected to persist for 
a few days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Sep: Unsettled to 
Minor Storm

Estimated Indices 15 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region      22   33534343
      Cocos Island        14   32423242
      Darwin              16   32434233
      Townsville          22   43444343
      Learmonth           24   33534353
      Alice Springs       21   33534243
      Norfolk Island      16   33443232
      Culgoora            19   33434343
      Gingin              21   32434353
      Camden              23   335443-3
      Canberra            23   33544343
      Launceston          25   33544344
      Hobart              23   33544343    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Sep :
      Macquarie Island    45   35556643
      Casey               24   44443253
      Mawson              69   64544486
      Davis               46   54543375

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Sep : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Alice Springs       20   (Quiet)
      Gingin             102   (Major storm)
      Canberra            89   (Minor storm)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        25
           Planetary             35                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             27   3212 3653     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Sep    25    Active
17 Sep    14    Unsettled to Active
18 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 46 was issued on 15 September 
and is current for 15-16 Sep. Unsettled to minor storm conditions 
were observed across the Australian region during the UT day, 
15 September. These disturbed conditions were in response to 
the arrival of CIR and subsequent HSS associated with the coronal 
hole. The two day forecast is for the magnetic activity to be 
between unsettled to active levels, sometimes it may reach minor 
storm levels, since the HSS from coronal hole is expected to 
persist for a few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Sep      Fair           Fair           Poor-fair      

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1635UT 10/09, Ended at 1720UT 14/09

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Sep      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
17 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs were slightly higher than the predicted monthly 
values over the last 24 hours. Similar HF conditions are expected 
for today, 16 September.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Sep    17

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      10
Sep      5
Oct      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Sep    10    Near predicted monthly values
17 Sep     5    Near predicted monthly values
18 Sep     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over 
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region, with minor periods 
of enhancements and depressions. MUFs in the Australian/NZ region 
are expected to be between slightly enhanced and near monthly 
predicted values for the next three UT days due to forecasted 
active geomagnetic conditions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.2E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Sep
Speed: 420 km/sec  Density:    8.0 p/cc  Temp:   119000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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