[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 September 17 issued 2330 UT on 14 Sep 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 15 09:30:17 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 SEPTEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 SEPTEMBER - 17 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Sep:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Sep             16 Sep             17 Sep
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    74/11              74/11              74/11

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 14 September, 
with no flares. Expect very low levels of solar activity for 
the next three UT days (15-17 September) with some chance of 
C-class flares. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in 
the available coronagraph imagery for UT day 14 September. The 
solar winds increased gradually throughout the UT day 14 September, 
changing from ~400 km/s to ~700 km/s. This increase was in response 
to the anticipated arrival of the high speed streams (HSS) from 
the Northern Hemisphere coronal hole. The IMF Bt was steady near 
6 nT up till 14/1100 UT and thereafter peaked to 22 nT at 14/1430 
UT and then dropping back to 6 nT by the end of the UT day. The 
Bz component of the IMF also fluctuated strongly between 14/1100 
UT and 14/1430 UT, ranging between -18 nT and +18 nT. At other 
times, IMF Bz was mostly near 0 nT. These enhancements in IMF 
conditions is due to the arrival of corotation interaction region 
(CIR), which was followed by the HSS from coronal hole. The two 
day outlook (15 - 16 September) is for the solar winds to be 
at very high levels as to the HSS associated with coronal hole 
is expected to persist for a few days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Sep: Quiet to Minor 
Storm

Estimated Indices 14 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region      16   21133543
      Cocos Island        13   21123532
      Darwin              15   21133533
      Townsville          17   31133543
      Learmonth           17   21233543
      Alice Springs       16   21133543
      Norfolk Island      11   21233333
      Culgoora            15   21133533
      Gingin              18   21133544
      Camden              15   21133533
      Canberra            14   21033533
      Launceston          20   22144543
      Hobart              18   21134543    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Sep :
      Casey               19   44333433
      Mawson              36   33234547
      Davis               19   23333435

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             27                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15   5443 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Sep    28    Active
16 Sep    25    Active
17 Sep    11    Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet to minor storm conditions were observed across 
the Australian region during the UT day, 14 September. The Australian 
DST index was predominantly around -20 nT throughout the UT day. 
These disturbed conditions were in response to the arrival of 
CIR and subsequent HSS associated with the coronal hole. The 
two day forecast is for the magnetic activity to be between unsettled 
to active levels and at times reaching minor storm levels, since 
the HSS from coronal hole is expected to persist for a few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1635UT 10/09, Ended at 1720UT 14/09

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Sep      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
16 Sep      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
17 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs were slightly higher than the predicted monthly 
values over the last 24 hours. Similar HF conditions are expected 
to today, 15 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Sep    16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available .
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      No data available over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      10
Sep      5
Oct      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Sep    15    Near predicted monthly values
16 Sep     5    Near predicted monthly values
17 Sep     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over 
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region, with minor periods 
of enhancements. HF conditions in Australian/NZ region are expected 
to be between slightly enhanced and near monthly predicted values 
for the next three days due increased solar ionising radiation 
and forecasted active conditions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.4E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  7.0E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Sep
Speed: 451 km/sec  Density:    8.5 p/cc  Temp:   196000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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