[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 September 17 issued 2338 UT on 13 Sep 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 14 09:38:27 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 SEPTEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 SEPTEMBER - 16 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Sep: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Sep 15 Sep 16 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 13 September,
with only weak B-class flares all from Region 2680 currently
located at N08E28. Expect very low levels of solar activity for
the next three UT days (14-16 September) with some chance of
C-class flares. The three CMEs observed on UT day 12 September,
two associated with C-class flares from Region 2680 and another
CME associated with disappearing filament from Region 2677, were
determined to have no Earth-directed component. No other Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery for UT
day 13 September. The solar winds decreased steadily throughout
the UT day 13 September, changing from ~600 km/s to ~350 km/s.
This is possibly due to the passing of the 10 Sept CME associated
with X8.2 flare. The IMF Bt also dropped from ~10 nT at the beginning
of the UT day to 3 nT by the end of UT day. The Bz component
of the IMF fluctuated between -4 nT and +4 nT. The two day outlook
(14 - 15 September) is for the solar winds to increase to moderately
elevated levels due to the high speed streams associated with
the Northern Hemisphere coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 13 Sep : A K
Australian Region 12 43432110
Cocos Island 7 42311110
Darwin 9 43321102
Townsville 11 43422111
Learmonth 13 53332110
Alice Springs 11 43431101
Norfolk Island 8 32421011
Culgoora 11 43422110
Gingin 10 42332210
Camden 14 43532110
Canberra 11 43432100
Launceston 14 43532100
Hobart 14 43532100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Sep :
Casey 16 54332221
Mawson 26 54543243
Davis 19 54442221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 8 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 55 (Unsettled)
Canberra 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 28
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 16 2133 3345
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
15 Sep 20 Active
16 Sep 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 45 was issued on 12 September
and is current for 12-14 Sep. Quiet to active magnetic conditions
were observed across the Australian region during the UT day,
13 September. The Australian DST index dipped to a minimum of
-30 nT at 13/0817 UT. These disturbed conditions were associated
with the 10 Sept CME. Today, 14 September, unsettled to active
geomagnetic activity is expected and at times even reaching minor
storm levels. These are in response to the positive polarity
coronal hole now taking a geoeffective location on the solar
disk. Unsettled to Active conditions are expected to persist
on 15 and 16 September due to the coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 11 09 2017 0235UT and is in progress
and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1615UT 10/09, Ended at 2230UT 12/09
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Sep Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
15 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
16 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were slightly higher than the predicted monthly
values over the last 24 hours. Similar HF conditions are expected
to today, 14 September.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Sep 27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
No data available over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 10
Sep 5
Oct 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Sep 15 Near predicted monthly values
15 Sep 10 Near predicted monthly values
16 Sep 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region, with minor enhancements
in the Southern Australian Region. HF conditions in Australian/NZ
region are expected to be between slightly enhanced and near
monthly predicted values for the next three days due increased
solar ionising radiation and forecasted active conditions. High
latitudes experienced poor HF conditions most likely due to PCA
effects after increased proton levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.8E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Sep
Speed: 487 km/sec Density: 8.2 p/cc Temp: 232000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list