[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 September 17 issued 2352 UT on 10 Sep 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 11 09:52:46 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 SEPTEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 SEPTEMBER - 13 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Sep: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
C9.0 09/2331UT probable lower West Pacific
X8.3 1606UT probable all South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Sep: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep
Activity Moderate to high Low Low
Fadeouts Probable None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 83/24 81/22
COMMENT: Solar activity reached High levels again today, 10 Sep.
Region 2673, now behind the western limb produced several C-class
flares, an M1 flare(09/2353) and another strong X8 class flare
peaking at 1606UT. The X8 flare was associated with a type II
and IV radio sweeps. A CME may have been associated with this
flare, but due to unavailability of SOHO/LASCO images it couldn't
be confirmed. The grater than 10 MeV proton flux become strongly
elevated following this event. M-class flares with a chance of
an other X-class flare may be observed over the next 24 hours
from region 2673 before fully disappearing over the western limb.
Solar wind speed remained enhanced around 550Km/s. The Bz component
of the IMF fluctuated between +/- 4nT and appeared to have a
northerly bias reducing its geoeffectiveness via merging with
the geomagnetic field for most of the day before sustaining southwards
IMF at -4nT from 1800UT. The Btotal for the interplanetary magnetic
(IMF) field ranged from 4 to 6 nT during this period. Expect
the solar wind speed to decline to nominal levels over the next
two days then expect an increase in the solar wind speed day
3, 13 Sep under the influence of a positive polarity coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 11000013
Cocos Island 3 10100013
Darwin 3 11100013
Townsville 3 11000013
Learmonth 2 01000013
Alice Springs 3 11000013
Norfolk Island 2 21100012
Culgoora 2 00000013
Gingin 4 01000114
Camden 2 10000013
Canberra 1 00000003
Launceston 2 00000013
Hobart 2 00000013
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Sep :
Casey 9 22320124
Mawson 15 10201246
Davis 12 21311235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 3210 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Sep 25 Quiet to Active with a chance for Minor Storm
periods.
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remained moderately enhanced over the
last 24 hours, while Bz was more neutral. Quiet geomagnetic conditions
were observed over the Australian region with one Unsettled period
late UT day most likely associated with a slight southward Bz
orientation at -4nT after 1800 UT. Expect geomagnetic conditions
to remain Quiet to Unsettled on 11-12 Sep. A positive polarity
coronal hole is expected increase the geomagnetic activity to
active with possible Minor Storm periods on 13 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 11 09 2017 0235UT and is in progress
and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 11 09 2017 0215UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
12 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
13 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF communication conditions may be observed
over the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Sep 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 65% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 10
Sep 5
Oct 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Sep 5 Near predicted monthly values
12 Sep 5 Near predicted monthly values
13 Sep 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Propagation conditions has improved slightly over the
last 24 hours. Disturbed periods observed at times for low to
Mid latitudes. High latitudes experienced poor HF conditions
most likely due to PCA effects after increased proton levels.
Sporadic E and Spread F were also observed at times across the
Australian region which may have contributed to degraded HF conditions.
Similar, yet improving conditions may be expected to prevail
over the next 24 hours. Mild depression may be observed over
the next few days due to declining solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Sep
Speed: 587 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 788000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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