[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 September 17 issued 2354 UT on 09 Sep 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 10 09:54:03 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 SEPTEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 SEPTEMBER - 12 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Sep: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.1 08/2346UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.0 0431UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M3.7 1104UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Sep: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep
Activity Moderate to high Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Probable Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 85/27 83/24
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours with
region 2673(S09WW83) producing three M-class flares. The largest
flare of the period was an M3 event peaking at 1104 UT. Region
2673 is approaching the west limb and simplified somehow however
further M-class flares with a chance of an other X-class flare
are expected over the next 24 Hours from this region. An other
M class flare is in progress at the time of this report. The
greater than 10MeV proton flux dropped below the event threshold
early UT day but may increase again due to expected flaring activity
from region 2673. Soar winds associated with the 06 Sep CME impact
have declined over the last 24 hours from 750 Km/s to 550Km/s
at the time of this report. The Bz component of the IMF have
become more neutral trough the UT with Btotal around 6nT. Slightly
enhanced solar wind conditions may be observed over the next
2 days under the influence of a small coronal hole
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 21101001
Cocos Island 1 11010001
Darwin 2 11101002
Townsville 3 21101012
Learmonth 2 22101000
Alice Springs 2 12101001
Norfolk Island 2 22100000
Culgoora 1 11001001
Gingin 2 21101000
Camden 2 21001001
Canberra 1 21001000
Launceston 3 22102000
Hobart 1 11101000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Sep :
Casey 11 34421112
Mawson 8 43312001
Davis 12 53411101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 50
Planetary 117 8444 9874
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Sep 12 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Sep 12 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 44 was issued on 8 September
and is current for 8-10 Sep. Solar wind speed remained moderately
enhanced after the passage of 06 September CME , while Bz become
more neutral through the UT day. This caused a decline in geomagnetic
activity. Geomagnetic conditions subsided to Quiet levels over
the Australian region on 09 Sep. A small coronal hole may increase
the geomagnetic activity to Unsettled levels over the next two
days. The possibility of further CMEs associated with currently
active region effecting the Earth has decreased and will continue
to decrease as the region moves beyond the western limb over
the next 24 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Sep Poor-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0020UT 05/09, Ended at 1455UT 08/09
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1645UT 08/09, Ended at 2255UT 08/09
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Sep Fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
11 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
12 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Expect disturbed ionosphere and degraded HF communication
conditions over the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Sep 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 10
Sep 5
Oct 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Sep -10 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
11 Sep 5 Near predicted monthly values
12 Sep 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 39 was issued on 7 September
and is current for 8-10 Sep. Propagation conditions throughout
the UT day were highly variable with enhancements from solar
flare activity compounding with depressions due to geomagnetic
activity. Disturbed periods observed for low to Mid latitudes.
High latitudes experienced poor HF conditions. Notable instance
of Sporadic E blaketing and strong spread F observed for all
regions. Similar, yet improving conditions may be expected to
prevail over the next 24 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.7E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Sep
Speed: 763 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 885000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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