[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 September 17 issued 2354 UT on 08 Sep 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 9 09:54:25 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 SEPTEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 SEPTEMBER - 11 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Sep: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.9 0000UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.3 0224UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M8.1 0749UT probable lower Mid East/Indian
M3.0 1547UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Sep: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate
Fadeouts Probable Probable Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 105/54 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was High over the last 24 hours with
region 2673(S09W70) producing five M-class flares. The largest
flare of the period was an M8 event peaking at 0749UT with an
associated CME observed in LASCO C2 satellite imagery, unlikely
to have significant earth directed component. An other M class
flare is in progress at the time of this report. The greater
than 10MeV proton flux is decreasing but still above the threshold.
Region 2673 maintained mixed polarity and and complex magnetic
configuration. It has the potential for very large flares over
the next few days before it turns around the West limb. Expect
the solar activity to be Moderate to High over the next few days.
the solar wind speed remained enhanced, currently ~750Km/s. After
the shock associated with 06 Sep CME observed in the solar wind
at 07/2230UT, Bz sustained a southward orientation at -30nT until
~~ 08/0100UT then subsided, varied between +/- 10nT with no significant
southwards excursions. The Btotal ranged from 26nT early UT day
to 11 nT during this period and is currently at 6 nT. At 1115UT
Bz turned solid again negative up the -18nT but is currently
trending towards Neutral. Enhanced solar wind conditions are
expected to continue over the UT day as the CME passes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Sep: Unsettled to
Major Storm
Estimated Indices 08 Sep : A K
Australian Region 35 54436543
Cocos Island 27 53335533
Darwin 28 53435533
Townsville 34 54436533
Learmonth 48 64546643
Alice Springs 37 64535533
Norfolk Island 32 54436442
Culgoora 35 54436543
Gingin 42 64446544
Camden 35 54436543
Canberra 31 53436443
Launceston 55 64547643
Hobart 51 54547643
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Sep :
Casey 77 77755454
Mawson 108 86655586
Davis 72 66754566
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Sep :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Alice Springs 10 (Quiet)
Gingin 46 (Unsettled)
Canberra 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 53
Planetary 98
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 42 3434 3328
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Sep 40 Active to Minor Storm
10 Sep 20 Active
11 Sep 12 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 44 was issued on 8 September
and is current for 8-10 Sep. Geomagnetic conditions reached Severe
Storm levels during the UT day, 08 Sep due to the 06 Sep CME
arrival. Expect Active to Minor Storm conditions with possible
cases of Major Storm conditions at higher latitudes for today,
09 Sep. A decline in geomagnetic activity is expected on 10 Sep
as the CME wanes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Sep Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0020UT 05/09, Ended at 1455UT 08/09
and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 09 09 2017 0245UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Sep Fair-normal Poor-fair Poor
10 Sep Fair-normal Poor-fair Poor-fair
11 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Expect disturbed ionosphere and degraded HF communication
conditions due to increased geomagnetic activity 09-10 Sep.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Sep 47
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
No data available over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 10
Sep 5
Oct 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Sep -10 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
10 Sep -10 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
11 Sep 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 38 was issued on 7
September and is current for 7-9 Sep. SWS HF Communications Warning
39 was issued on 7 September and is current for 8-10 Sep. Maximum
usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted monthly values
to enhanced in the Aus/NZ region over the last 24 hours. Spread
F and Sporadic E blaketing observed at most locations. Expect
similar conditions to prevail on 09-10 September with MUF depressions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+09
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Sep
Speed: 536 km/sec Density: 8.4 p/cc Temp: 540000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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