[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 September 17 issued 2337 UT on 11 Sep 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 12 09:37:58 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 SEPTEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 SEPTEMBER - 14 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Sep: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 76/14 76/14
COMMENT: Solar activity was low for the UT day, 11 September,
with no further X-class or M-class flares. Region 2673, which produced
large flares over the last few days, has nearly rotated to the
far side of sun. The remaining regions on the visible solar disk
are not threatening to produce any significant flares. Expect
low levels of solar activity for the next three UT days (12-14
September) with some chance of C-class flares. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery for the UT
day 11 September. The solar winds were at moderately high levels
during the last 24 hours. It decreased from 650 km/s at beginning
to UT day to 530 km/s by the end of UT day. The IMF Bt was weak,
fluctuating between 1 nT and 5 nT during the UT day. The Bz component
of the IMF fluctuated between -2 nT and +3 nT, with no significant
period of southward Bz. The outlook for today 12 September is
for the solar winds to continue to decrease toward nominal level.
However, from 13 September or thereabout, expect the solar winds
to enhance again in response to a recurrent positive polarity
Northern hemisphere coronal hole soon reaching geoeffective location
on the solar disk. During the previous rotation, the solar winds
associated with the approaching coronal hole reached mean daily
speeds of 720 km/s. Similar effects are expected in this rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Sep : A K
Australian Region 10 33223222
Cocos Island 6 22222211
Darwin 8 23222222
Townsville 10 23233222
Learmonth 12 33333222
Alice Springs 10 33223222
Norfolk Island 6 23222111
Culgoora 8 33222212
Gingin 11 32323232
Camden 9 33223212
Canberra 10 33223222
Launceston 15 44333222
Hobart 10 33223222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Sep :
Casey 18 34343333
Mawson 41 44545465
Davis 39 44454372
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Sep :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Alice Springs 11 (Quiet)
Gingin 92 (Minor storm)
Canberra 91 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 7 0000 1423
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Sep 15 Initially Quiet and may reach active levels by
end of UT day
13 Sep 25 Active
14 Sep 25 Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly near quiet to unsettled
levels across the Australian region during the UT day, 11 September.
Active conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. These
disturbed conditions were due to moderately elevated speed solar
winds. Today, 12 September, the geomagnetic activity is expected
to be mostly quiet during the early part of UT day, however,
by the end of UT day could reach active levels in response to
the corotating interaction region associated with the approaching
positive polarity coronal hole. Active conditions are expected
to persist on 13 and 14 September due to the coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 11 09 2017 0235UT and is in progress
and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 11 09 2017 0215UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Sep Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
13 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
14 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: MUFs were slightly higher than the predicted monthly
values over the last 24 hours for the Southern Hemisphere. Mild
depression were observed in the mid and high latitude regions
of the Northern Hemisphere. Similar HF conditions are expected
to today, 12 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Sep 33
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
No data available over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 10
Sep 5
Oct 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Sep 30 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Sep 30 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Sep 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were enhanced by 15-40% relative to predicted monthly
values over the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region. HF
conditions in this region are expected to be slightly higher
than the monthly predicted values for the next three days due
increased solar ionising radiation and forecasted active conditions.
High latitudes experienced poor HF conditions most likely due
to PCA effects after increased proton levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Sep
Speed: 539 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 596000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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