[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 September 17 issued 2345 UT on 05 Sep 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 6 09:45:07 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 SEPTEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 SEPTEMBER - 08 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Sep: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
C9.0 04/2246UT probable lower East Pacific/
North American
C9.0 0037UT probable lower West Pacific
M4.2 0108UT possible lower West Pacific
C9.0 0354UT probable lower E. Asia/Aust.
M3.1 0455UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M3.8 0640UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M2.2 1744UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Sep: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Sep 07 Sep 08 Sep
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at High levels during the last
24 hours with multiple M-class flares all from active region
2673(S08W28). Associated to the flaring activity a series of
narrow CMEs were observed in SOHO images starting from 0048UT
onward, unlikely to have significant earth directed components.
Analysis of the CME observed on 4 September and our model results
determined that the CME is likely to hit Earth in the second
half of the UT day, 6 September. Region 2673 increased in area
and magnetic complexity during the last 24 hours, it is currently
a Beta-Gamma-Delta class and presents significant threat of producing
more M-class flares, with possible chance of an X-class flare
over the next few days. Background X-ray flux decreased over
the last 24 hours but it is still above the B_level. The grater
that 10 MeV proton flux started increasing after the the M5 flare
~~04/2300UT and passed the threshold at 5/0040UT. Further increase
in proton flux is possible over the next few days due to continued
flaring activity from region 2673. The solar wind speed decreased
from 620Km to near 420 km/s over the last 24 hours. The Interplanetary
Magnetic Field Bz component fluctuated between +/-5nT over the
last 24 hours and B total remained steady around 5nT. Expect
the solar wind speed to remain at nominal levels until expected
CME arrival, then expect a step up in solar wind speed.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Sep : A K
Australian Region 7 32221221
Cocos Island 5 32211120
Darwin 7 32211222
Townsville 8 33221221
Learmonth 9 33311231
Alice Springs 7 32221222
Norfolk Island 6 32211122
Culgoora 5 22221121
Gingin 8 32321230
Camden 6 32221121
Canberra 5 22221121
Launceston 8 23232221
Hobart 5 22221121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Sep :
Casey 19 54432232
Mawson 34 44423373
Davis 24 43432263
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 17 4322 2244
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Sep 40 Active to Major Storm
07 Sep 50 Active to Major Storm
08 Sep 20 Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled for the
last 24 hours. Expect similar conditions to prevail for until
expected CME arrival in the latter half of the UT day today 6
September, then expect an increase to Active to Major Storm conditions
with possible cases of Severe Storm conditions at higher latitudes.
Active to Major Storm conditions for 7 September due to continuing
CME effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 05 09 2017 1020UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
08 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Sep 35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 10
Sep 5
Oct 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Sep 30 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Sep 20 Near predicted monthly values
08 Sep 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 36 was issued on 5
September and is current for 5-6 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) were near predicted monthly values to enhanced in the
Aus/NZ region over the last 24 hours. Isolated periods of sporadic
E were observed in some locations. The outlook for today (6 September)
is for a predicted monthly values to enhanced MUFs followed by
storm-associated depressions on the subsequent days, possibly
beginning from 07 September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.9E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Sep
Speed: 480 km/sec Density: 15.7 p/cc Temp: 363000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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