[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 September 17 issued 2330 UT on 04 Sep 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 5 09:30:20 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 SEPTEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 SEPTEMBER - 07 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Sep: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 0550UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.4 1531UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
C9.0 1823UT probable lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.6 1940UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M5.5 2033UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Sep: 183/136
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Sep 06 Sep 07 Sep
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 130/84
COMMENT: High levels of solar activity were observed during the
last 24 hours. Active region 2673(S08W13) produced several C-class
and several M-class flares over this period. The largest flare
was an M5 at 2032UT. Region 2673 is rapidly growing in complexity.
Further M_class flares are likely from this region with a chance
of an X-class flare. Background X-ray flux is increasing, currently
above the C_level. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the
available LASCO C2 imagery up to 1724UT, further analysis is
required when more imagery is available in tomorrow's report.
The solar wind speed ranged from 475 to around 525 km/s during
the UT day, 04 September. The Btotal for the interplanetary magnetic
(IMF) field ranged from 5 to 10 nT during this period. Bz component
of the IMF ranged from +/- 5nT. Expect the solar wind speed to
return to and remain at nominal levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Sep : A K
Australian Region 7 22122232
Cocos Island 7 22221232
Darwin 9 22222233
Townsville 8 32222222
Learmonth 10 22222333
Alice Springs 8 22122233
Norfolk Island 7 32222122
Culgoora 6 22122222
Gingin 10 32122333
Camden 7 22122232
Canberra 7 22122232
Launceston 10 22123333
Hobart 7 22122232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Sep :
Casey 19 34332353
Mawson 25 44334354
Davis 27 54333362
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 8 3312 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Sep 5 Quiet
07 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity ranged from Quiet to Unsettled
levels during the last 24 hours in the Australian region. Expect
geomagnetic conditions to be Quiet with possible isolated periods
of Unsettled levels over the UT day, 05 September and a return
to mostly Quiet conditions on 06-07 September as the influence
of the coronal hole wanes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions are expected for 5-7 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Sep 29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 10
Sep 5
Oct 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Sep 30 About 20% above predicted monthly values
06 Sep 30 About 20% below predicted monthly values
07 Sep 30 About 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values to enhanced in the Aus/NZ region over the last
24 hours. Isolated periods of sporadic E were observed in some
locations. An increase in EUV flux is likely to result in MUFs
enhancements for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Sep
Speed: 493 km/sec Density: 14.5 p/cc Temp: 408000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Bureau of Meteorology
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