[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 September 17 issued 2354 UT on 06 Sep 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 7 09:54:37 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 SEPTEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 SEPTEMBER - 09 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Sep: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M7.7 0928UT probable lower Mid East/Indian
X9.3 1202UT probable all European
M1.0 1731UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.4 1931UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Sep: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep
Activity High to very high High to very high High to very high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very High over the last 24 hours
with region 2673(S08W35) producing multiple C-M class flares
and two X-class flares; an X2.2 and X9.3 peaking at 0910UT and
1202UTrespectively with associated Type II and IV radio sweeps.
The X2.2 flare was associated with a CME to the South West first
observed in LASCO C2 satellite imagery at 0948UT UT. A halo frontside
CME was associated with the X9 flare observed in LASCO C2 satellite
imagery at 1202UT and that it is earthward bound. Further analysis
and model run will be given in tomorrow's report. A proton event
is currently in progress. The greater than 10MeV proton levels
reached 155 pfu at 2100UT. Greater than 100 MeV proton levels
increased after the X2.2 flare. Region 2673 continued increasing
in area and magnetic complexity, this region has the potential
of very large flares. Expect the solar activity to be High to
Very High over the next few days. Solar wind speed remained at
nominal level over the last 24 hours near ~400km/s until the
arrival of the anticipated CME at 23:08UT, when it jumped to
over 550km/s, along with a solar wind shock. The Interplanetary
Magnetic Field Bz component has increased following the shock,
however it has the potential to swing southward as the CME passes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 12222101
Cocos Island 3 12122100
Darwin 4 22112102
Townsville 4 22221101
Learmonth 6 22232201
Alice Springs 3 12211101
Norfolk Island 4 21221102
Culgoora 3 12121101
Gingin 5 22222201
Camden 4 12221102
Canberra 3 12121101
Launceston 5 12222111
Hobart 4 12122102
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Sep :
Casey 17 44432323
Mawson 12 33322323
Davis 16 34432323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 42 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 37
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11 3322 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Sep 50 Active to Major Storm
08 Sep 30 Active to Minor Storm
09 Sep 75 Major to Severe Storm
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 42 was issued on 6 September
and is current for 6-8 Sep. Magnetic conditions were quiet across
the Australian region during the UT day, 06 September. The arrival
of a CME late in the UT day 06 Sep will increase geomagnetic
conditions over the early part of the UT day (07 Sep). Expect
Active to Major Storm conditions with possible cases of Severe
Storm conditions at higher latitudes for 7 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Sep Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 05 09 2017 1020UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Sep Normal-fair Fair-normal Poor-fair
08 Sep Poor Fair-normal Poor-fair
09 Sep Normal-fair Fair-normal Poor-fair
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs expected for high to mid latitudes on
07-09 September due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Sep 31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 10
Sep 5
Oct 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Sep 20 Near predicted monthly values
08 Sep 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
09 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
COMMENT: SWS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 37 was issued
on 6 September and is current for 7-8 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) were near predicted monthly values to enhanced in the
Aus/NZ region over the last 24 hours. Isolated periods of sporadic
E were observed in some locations. Expect near predicted monthly
values to enhanced in the Aus/NZ region today, 07 September.
Followed by moderate MUF depressions on 08-09 September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+09
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.0E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Sep
Speed: 521 km/sec Density: 10.8 p/cc Temp: 420000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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