[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 October 17 issued 2345 UT on 25 Oct 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 26 10:45:36 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 OCTOBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 OCTOBER - 28 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Oct: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Oct 27 Oct 28 Oct
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 79/19 78/17 77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
There are currently 2 regions on the visible disk, region 2685
(S09E19) and region 2686 (N13E39) and both remain quiet and stable.
No earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO
C2 imagery. The solar wind speed ranged between 550km/s and 676km/s
over the UT day and is currently ~560km/s at the time of this
report. Bz fluctuated between +/-8nT between 00UT and 08UT, after
which Btotal decreased in magnitude and Bz fluctuated between
+/-4nT with only brief southward excursions. Solar wind speed
is expected to remain at these elevated levels for the next 24-48
hours due to the influence of a recurrent positive polarity coronal
hole that extends from the equator up to the north pole of the
sun. Very Low to Low solar activity is expected for the next
3 days with only a slight chance of C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 25 Oct : A K
Australian Region 12 33432222
Cocos Island 8 32322211
Darwin 11 33332222
Townsville 12 33432222
Learmonth 12 33332322
Alice Springs 12 33432222
Norfolk Island 10 23332222
Culgoora 12 33432222
Gingin 15 43422323
Camden 12 33432222
Canberra 12 33432222
Launceston 12 33432222
Hobart 12 33432222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Oct :
Macquarie Island 22 34554221
Casey 20 55432222
Mawson 60 65643367
Davis 33 44544246
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 5 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 96 (Minor storm)
Canberra 85 (Minor storm)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 28
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 14 2122 4324
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Oct 20 Active
27 Oct 14 Unsettled to Active
28 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions for the Australian
region over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed remains elevated
under the influence of a recurrent coronal hole high speed solar
wind stream which is still capable of inducing Active to Storm
level conditions should sustained southward Bz periods eventuate.
Mostly Unsettled with possible Active to Minor Storm periods
for 26Oct-27Oct and Quiet to Unsettled conditions for 28Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Normal-fair Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
27 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUF's near predicted monthly values for 25Oct with some
minor depressed periods for low-mid latitudes and degraded conditions
for high latitudes. Similar conditions are expected 26Oct-27Oct
due to elevated geomagnetic activity. MUFs expected to be near
predicted monthly values for 28Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Oct 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 20
Oct 5
Nov 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Oct 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
27 Oct 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
28 Oct 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 44 was issued on 25 October
and is current for 25-26 Oct. Minor MUF depressions for Southern
AUS/NZ regions and Northern AUS/Equatorial regions for 25Oct.
MUF depressions of ~20% for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ
regions possible over the next 24-48 hours. Degraded ionospheric
support for Antarctic regions expected during this period. MUFs
expected to be near predicted monthly values for 28Oct.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Oct
Speed: 451 km/sec Density: 11.0 p/cc Temp: 246000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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